1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3480 yuan / ton, up 0.87% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene prices rose slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in North China have raised the price of toluene by about 100 yuan / ton this week. There are signs of stabilizing port inventory, but it is still high, and there is still pressure to go to the warehouse. The market supply is still surplus, but the demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream shows signs of improvement, the demand for toluene is slightly improved, the market trading atmosphere is slightly improved, and the overall supply and demand situation tends to be balanced. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3430 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia at the OPEC + meeting called for a “cheating country” to cut production, boosting market sentiment, making oil prices rise continuously, leading to a “dramatic reversal” in the crude oil market, the largest weekly increase since June. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $3.445/barrel to close at $42.49/barrel, up 8.82% from last week.

Downstream, TDI, this week continued to rise, TDI supply is tight, the market quotation continues to rise. Market news: in September, Wanhua chemical’s TDI listing price increased by 2000 yuan / ton to 19000 yuan / ton, and Shanghai BASF TDI’s listing price in September was increased by 4000 yuan / ton to 22000 yuan / ton (barreled). It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain an upward trend. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4600 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 544 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 562 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will usher in an adjustment trend.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business agency: first look at the supply cost side, the total number of us oil drilling wells, EIA and API inventory data, and the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the impact of US dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the domestic market toluene price will usher in an adjustment trend next week.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly, and the quoted price rose from 1686.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1710.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 23.33 yuan / ton or 1.38%, 5.70% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index of 79.53 on September 18.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1740 yuan / ton, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1680 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of urea from clear water was 1710 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 40 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent high consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has better cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea have been up and down on the whole this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 2370.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2373.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.14%, 18.16% lower than that of the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly this week, from 3133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.06%, the same as last year On the whole, urea cost support this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly, rising 0.62% from 5366.67 at the beginning of the week to 5400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week.

3、 Future forecast

In late September, the urea market in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. As the National Day approaches, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, and the short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

On September 18, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 4000 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, according to business agency data.

On September 17, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3810 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton or 0.78% from the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of September 17, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1.3015 million tons, a decrease of 68600 tons (5.01%) compared with last Thursday and 23600 tons (1.78%) compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, Zhangjiagang and Taicang continued to decline this week, with an average daily shipment of about 4600 tons in Zhangjiagang and 6900 tons in Taicang.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 59%, which is 3% higher than last week; the operating rate of polyester is about 89%, which is basically the same as last week.

In terms of units, the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 600000 tons is currently in the commissioning stage, and the gasifier is in commissioning, and the overall operation load is not high. Zhongyan hongsifang’s 300000 ton ethylene glycol plant suffered a small failure during the restart last week, and is ready to restart according to the situation in the near future.

3、 Analysis and prediction

As some foreign units stopped due to force majeure and Saudi Arabia’s supply of goods to Hong Kong decreased, although the shipment from the wharf was poor this week, the inventory continued to decline. At the same time, the resumption of domestic coal making plant is slow, which also makes some factors to remove the storage. From the demand terminal point of view, the current weaving operating rate is slowly rising, but due to the poor consumption of polyester inventory, the current demand for ethylene glycol is still insufficient. Therefore, in the short term, the price of ethylene glycol may rise due to the stimulation of destocking and supply reduction. In the long term, we need to continue to pay attention to the power of new production capacity and the consumption status of downstream polyester.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (September 16): 392.50 yuan / ton

On September 16, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on September 14. Although the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently and the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general and the sulfuric acid supply is normal.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, with the quotation of 390 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10600 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 10766 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with the price falling by 1.57%.

The price of activated carbon in China is rising. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for water purification of coconut shell in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / T; the downstream demand of activated carbon in China is getting better, and the trading atmosphere in the field is active. The shipment is mostly carried out according to the order, and more attention is paid to the downstream transaction.

The cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell and charcoal as the main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon was supported, and the demand turned better; the cost support of coal based carbon raw materials was weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, and the environmental protection policy boosts the activated carbon market.

Forecast: the activated carbon market is mostly on demand, and the basic small orders are purchased to meet the normal production. Most traders maintain the shipment and reduce the warehouse. In the short term, the price of activated carbon may be dominated by shock consolidation.

According to the business agency data monitoring, the general plastic plate in August showed a continuous upward trend. The general plastics index was 764 points on August 1, 2020, and 799 points on August 31, 2020, with an overall increase of 4.62%. The main reasons for the collective rise of general plastics in August were as follows: first, affected by the rise of international crude oil, which benefited the whole petrochemical industry, large plastic and petrochemical plants increased the ex factory prices of raw materials, which boosted the market; secondly, the futures markets of LLDPE, PP and PVC all rose to different degrees, bringing certain benefits to the market; third, due to the impact of international events this month However, the arrival of imported goods is not optimistic. Among them, ABS and LDPE are the most affected. LDPE is mainly dependent on imports, while imported goods cannot be unloaded at the port, resulting in tight supply of goods. Finally, in September, the plastic market is about to usher in the traditional peak season. The downstream production is gradually increasing, and the market demand is expected to improve. Under multiple favorable conditions, general plastics rose strongly.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in August 2020, there were 7 kinds of goods rising and 0 kinds of falling goods in the general plastics price list, and 1 kind of commodity was up and down to 0. The main commodities that rose were ABS (14.73%), LDPE (9.99%) and HDPE (3.70%); the average rise and fall of this month was 4.48%. According to the data, general plastics have different degrees of rise, of which ABS and PE are the most prominent, occupying the top three of the plate. Tight supply is the main reason for the sharp rise of ABS and PE, and also has a certain driving effect on the upward trend of other general plastics market.

Supply of goods in short supply has not improved, and ABS rose a lot in August

ABS market strengthened in August, and most spot prices in the market increased by a large margin. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 14800.00 yuan / ton, which was 14.73% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

In the first ten days of August, the domestic ABS market price continued the consolidation of the previous month, and the offer fell slightly. After that, although the domestic ABS petrochemical plant operating rate is still maintained at a high level, but the spot supply reduction is not improved, but intensified. Overseas public health events continued this month, which led to the poor arrival of imported goods. In addition, ABS inventory has been at a low level. Some domestic flooding has hindered the production of some polymerization plants, so that the recent supply situation has been tightened by multiple factors. At present, the business is in a steady state of mind, and the downstream factories are tentatively preparing goods, but they are still cautious.

Business agency analysts believe that: ABS market rose sharply in August, and the prices of all brands have a certain range of adjustment. In terms of cost side, the trend of the upstream three materials is mostly good, and the support for ABS on the cost side is acceptable. At present, ABS spot supply is still in short supply, and the downstream is cautious about the decrease of ABS supply, and the inquiry situation has increased. The resistance of merchants to ship is reduced, and the low price order is reduced. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted at a high level in the near future.

LDPE led the rise strongly in August, and the polyethylene market rose as a whole

In August, the center of gravity of the three major varieties in the spot market of polyethylene moved up as a whole. The ex factory price of LDPE increased significantly due to the shortage of goods. The high-pressure varieties increased by 9.99% in the month, ushering in the peak since 2020. The LLDPE and HDPE markets are dominated by this positive. At present, downstream demand is gradually improving, manufacturers’ orders are increasing, and the overall trading atmosphere of spot markets is improving.

In August, the PE market as a whole rose. LDPE in East China showed a continuous upward trend, while HDPE market showed a step-by-step upward trend. The trend of LLDPE was mainly followed by futures, which was slightly different from others, showing a downward first and then rising trend. And high pressure products rose most prominently. The market rose 300-1100 yuan / ton in August. Among them, the high-voltage market is one of the main reasons for its rise, because domestic equipment maintenance is more, and the import source cannot be unloaded at the port, resulting in tight supply of goods. During the month, the main and international crude oil of Liansu futures fluctuated and rose to the peak since March, which brought certain boost to the market. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of “golden nine silver ten”, the northern plastic film has entered the peak season, and the market demand has increased. Petrochemical enterprises have raised the ex factory price for many times, and most of them follow the market, and the shipment performance is more positive. The order volume of downstream factories increased, the volume of goods taken increased, and the market volume increased compared with the previous period.

PE analysts of business agency believe: in September, with the gradual completion of petrochemical plant maintenance, market supply pressure has increased. However, the traditional peak season of “gold nine silver ten” has arrived, and the market demand is expected to grow at the same time. At present, the pressure of port inventory and production enterprises is not big, and the main contract of Liansu futures is up strongly, which boosts the market mentality. Downstream into the market positive, business mentality is strong. It is expected that the PE market will continue to rise in September, and the LDPE market will return to the era of 10000 yuan.

August PVC market shock rise, warm up “golden nine” coming

On August 27, the mainstream average price of domestic PVC was 6565 yuan / ton, which was 1.19% higher than that of 6487.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 2.18% month on month, and 1.61% lower than the same period last year.

In August, the PVC market first rose, then fell and then rose, showing a roller coaster market, quite volatile, and the overall center of gravity began to move up. This month’s rise was mainly driven by the strong volatility of PVC futures and the rising cost of raw materials. However, due to the constraints of consumption in the off-season, the upward range was not large, accompanied by a correction. The market fluctuated slightly, with a maximum amplitude of 2.41%, with an increase of about 150 yuan. In August, the number of maintenance enterprises decreased, and the preliminary maintenance enterprises began to operate successively. However, due to the influence of the flood season, the output of some manufacturers in some areas declined, and the pressure on the supply side was not great. At the same time, the social inventory continued to decline. Although there was a slight recovery, it still showed a downward trend year on year. The manufacturers had strong willingness to adjust the price, and the calcium carbide price at the raw material end rose by more than 4% in August, which had a good support for PVC. In August, the overall operating rate of downstream product enterprises did not change much. The real estate industry was still the main driving force for demand. Other product industries were not as expected and were not buying enough PVC. Therefore, PVC prices continued to rise without actual driving force. It is reasonable that PVC prices should be in the callback stage after rising in the middle of the year. After a short period of consolidation, PVC will rise again. Near the arrival of the “golden nine” peak season, the demand may increase, which will boost the market atmosphere. PVC may continue to fluctuate upward, and there is no lack of rising market.

PVC analysts believe that August PVC market ups and downs, the center of gravity began to move up, but the low-season downstream capacity to receive goods limited, inhibit the rise. In September, although the number of maintenance enterprises is decreasing, the demand side is gradually entering the peak season. The supply and demand pattern is relatively balanced, and there is no big contradiction. Under the situation of macro warming and strong futures fluctuation, the PVC spot market rate continues to fluctuate upward and is not easy to fall deeply. It is also necessary to pay attention to the demand follow-up and the market trend.

Good market in August

In August, the domestic PP market was more volatile and the spot prices of some brands rose slightly. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was around 8016.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.78% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

In August, PP (wire drawing) market performance stable small rise, spot price adjustment. In terms of inventory, PP inventory of two barrels of oil and other production enterprises decreased, while the decline rate of social inventory was slightly lower. Far upstream crude oil has a strong trend in the near future, forming a certain support for chemicals. In the first half of this month, some ports were prone to extreme weather, which affected the arrival of ships and cargoes, and the port inventory also declined. In the late middle of the year, there is a resumption of production of PP maintenance equipment. At present, the negative expectation of increasing PP supply is not obvious. The quotation of merchants is following up. At present, the downstream price reduction intention is obvious. It is expected that the upward adjustment range of PP (wire drawing) price may be narrowed.

PP business agency analysts believe: August domestic PP spot market trend shocks strong. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) and PP (fiber) fluctuated and rose, PP (melt blown) demand continued to be weak, prices continued to callback. The current inventory decline, supply expansion expectations and futures rise and other mixed news at the same time. Downstream factory stock situation is OK, business offers have increased. PP spot price is expected to narrow the range of adjustment in the near future.

The international crude oil price fluctuated in August and the upward news was favorable to the plasticizing market

In August, the international crude oil market continued to release good news. The US crude oil inventory decreased sharply, the US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) put pressure on the oil producing countries whose output exceeded the target, requiring them to further reduce production from August to September. As a result, a large number of offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were forced to shut down and the crude oil production decreased Low. International crude oil prices rose in August, with WTI crude oil futures up 7.15%.

In August, the international crude oil market continued to be positive and stimulated, but the overall international crude oil market remained stable and did not form a continuous upward trend. It is expected that the crude oil price in September will still fluctuate at a high level, with limited support for the plastic market. However, in September, the plasticizer market ushered in the traditional peak season, and the terminal demand was expected to improve. With the increase of holidays, the film market demand was released. In the aftermarket, the market in September was still dominated by good news, and the general plastics market might continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on August 31 was 578 yuan / ton, while that on September 4 was 571 yuan / ton. The price fell by 1.15% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Due to insufficient market demand, domestic ammonium sulfate prices fell slightly this week. The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 550-650 yuan / ton, that of Henan Province is 530-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 470-540 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 520-570 yuan / ton, that of East China is 550-650 yuan / ton, that of North China is 500-650 yuan / ton The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate is 520-630 yuan / T.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market price fine adjustment, the overall market is stable. New orders have a small increase, the market demand is still to be strengthened. Compound fertilizer raw material market is stable, the cost has not changed too much. Compound fertilizer enterprises generally hold a wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate market trend is weak, the market demand is insufficient. The export situation of domestic ammonium sulfate is better and the market trend is good. It is expected that in the short term, ammonium sulfate will fluctuate in a small range.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc market rose step by step in August, and the zinc price was basically stable after that. As of August 31, the average price of zinc was 20273.33 yuan / ton, up 6.81% compared with 18980.00 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of zinc fluctuated and rose in August. However, the price of zinc dropped slightly in the last ten days of August, and the daily rise and fall were less than 200 yuan / ton. The zinc price in the last ten days of August was basically stable and weakened slightly.

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 51.0% in August, slightly down 0.1% from the previous month, and the manufacturing industry as a whole was running smoothly. The rise of the manufacturing index indicates that economic activity is active, and the demand for zinc is high, which is slightly lower than that of last month. The growth rate in the future market may slow down, and the future demand for zinc ingot may decline.

Construction of real estate market

It can be seen from the trend chart of the construction area of the real estate market that since 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, the newly started construction area and completed area of the real estate market have decreased significantly. With the comprehensive resumption of construction and production in China, the real estate market has recovered rapidly, and the newly started area and completed area have increased significantly. Although the real estate market is gradually warming up, compared with the construction area in previous years, the growth rate of the real estate market is significantly slower, and the growth rate of the demand for zinc market is slowing down. The decrease of new construction area in the real estate market indicates that the demand for zinc in the future market is weakened, and the support for the rise of zinc price in the future market is weakened.

Analysis, review and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, said: from the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China’s economy is still on the upward trend, and there is still room for the demand in the zinc market to rise. However, the real estate market is gradually warming up, and the demand for zinc market has increased significantly. However, the economic growth is slowing down, and the construction of the real estate market is decreasing. The future demand of zinc market is expected to decline, and the support for zinc price is insufficient. It is expected that the future zinc price will fluctuate and decline, and the support of zinc price will be insufficient.

At the end of August, after the phenol market rose 100-150 yuan / ton in late August, the support was insufficient, and the pressure of shippers was highlighted. The phenol Market Center of gravity was weak near the end of August. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on August 21, 2020, the average offer of phenol Market in China was 5600 yuan / ton, and 5600 yuan / ton in national market was the mainstream quotation trend. So far, the average offer of phenol Market in China on August 28 was 5487 yuan / ton, including 5400-5450 yuan / ton in East China and 5450-5600 yuan / ton in other regions. Generally speaking, the phenol Market in late August decreased by 2.1% In the end of August, the phenol Market weakened and the decline ended.

Trend chart of phenol average price in national market

Trend chart of phenol commodity index in East China (factory offer)

At the end of August, the overall market weakened, mainly due to the sluggish demand for terminals under sufficient supply and the poor procurement of terminal factories, which just needed to be followed up, and the market confidence was not optimistic. However, the domestic phenol Market is relatively sufficient, and it is still difficult to break through the bottleneck under the game of supply and demand.

At present, the domestic phenol ketone plant is operating at a high level. After Sinopec’s three well unit resumed production on the 24th, the average operating rate of phenol and ketone plants in China is as high as 95%. The phenol ketone plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company has also started production. Although the material has not yet been discharged, the overall supply side is sufficient. Near the end of the month, the port arrival volume is relatively sufficient, and the shipping time from Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Thailand and South Korea is relatively concentrated. It is expected that about 8000 tons of ships from Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port in early September. Although the port inventory is not at a high level, under the full supply side, the carrier’s shipment will decline in a narrow range.

From the downstream demand side, the upward space of bisphenol a market at the end of the month is relatively objective, and the current unit operating rate is expected to rise to 70%. Among them, Sinopec No.3 well unit will resume its restart on the 24th, and Lihua yiweiyuan 240000 ton unit is expected to resume production at the beginning of next month, and the phenol supply from these two companies is expected to decrease.

At present, the 150000 T / a phenol ketone plant of Bluestar Harbin is planned to be overhauled in early September, and the production is expected to resume after the 11th National Day. Generally speaking, the domestic phenol ketone plant is still operating at more than 90%. In the short term, the port replenishment is relatively sufficient. Although the unloading is delayed due to typhoon, the port inventory is expected to increase in the short term. In the end, there is no significant benefit from the phenolic resin plant The start-up is stable and the market demand is narrow. In the adjustment space, the overall situation is relatively stable. The downstream bisphenol a market is higher due to the product supply side, but the support for phenol is not strong.

From the perspective of business agencies, the phenol Market at the end of August was weak, and it was difficult to get rid of the current situation in the short term. Under the support of sufficient supply, the demand was not stimulated. At present, due to the support of the cost, the factory also limited the shipment to maintain the market situation. It is expected that the short-term phenol market will be slightly negative, and the phenol Market in East China will fall in a narrow range at the end of August, and the price space in East China is expected to be 5300-5400 yuan / ton.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (August 26): 385.00 yuan / ton

On August 26, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province fell, 37.50/t, or 8.88%, compared with the price quoted on August 24. Although the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently and the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general and the sulfuric acid supply is normal.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 380 yuan / ton.