Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (October 21): 15766.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the domestic NBR market rose sharply, with the mainstream average price at 17100.00/t, up 0.20% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene rose sharply, and the cost side was more favorable; on the other hand, with the increase of downstream rubber product operating rate after the festival, the inquiry for NBR increased, and the demand side supported the high price of NBR; finally, the ex factory price of NBR was increased, and traders’ offers continued to rise. To sum up, the price of NBR continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic NBR market quotation increased, Lanhua NBR 3308 mainstream reported 16500 ~ 16800 yuan / T, Nandi 1052 mainstream reported 18000 ~ 18500 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: the cost side is high, the demand side is stable, and the market price of nitrile rubber is expected to remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 526 yuan / ton on October 12, and 560 yuan / ton on October 16. The price rose by 6.33% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic market of coking grade ammonium sulfate turned better, and the price began to rise. The main factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Henan Province is 520-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 480-550 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 540-580 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Province is 410-490 yuan, and that of Northeast China is 520-630 yuan / ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market is stable and small. The market of compound fertilizer raw materials rose steadily this week with good cost support. The meeting of phosphate and compound fertilizer was postponed, and the market trend of compound fertilizer was not clear. In the short term, Hefei market will adjust slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate inventory is less, the market shipment is good, the market trend is up. There are many export orders and high price of ammonium sulfate. It is expected that the coking grade ammonium sulfate will rise steadily in the short term, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate will mainly run smoothly.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (October 19): 2733.33 yuan / ton

On October 19, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on October 16. The price of raw materials is low, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. Downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and calcium carbide supply is normal.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, the price of plasticizer DOP resumed to rise in October, DOP market performance was strong, and the price was strong. As of October 16, the DOP price was 7466.67 yuan / ton, up 2.99% compared with 7250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1).

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride that DOP raw material phthalic anhydride market showed strong performance in October, with phthalic anhydride price rising by 2.94%, and DOP cost rising, which has certain driving force support for DOP market.

It can be seen from the octanol price trend chart that the octanol market showed a strong performance in October. The octanol price recovered to rise by 1.30%. DOP cost rose and DOP was supported by the rise.

Downstream market of industrial chain

According to the PVC price trend chart, the PVC market rose sharply in October, the PVC price hit the bottom and rebounded to rise, up 4.33%. The PVC market fluctuated and rose. The overall PVC market rose strongly, which was good for the plasticizer DOP market.

Market review and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, in October, DOP raw materials octanol and phthalic anhydride prices rose, phthalic anhydride and octanol market continued strong performance, shock rise, DOP cost rise; downstream, PVC prices rose sharply, PVC market strengthened, DOP downstream demand rose. Generally speaking, the DOP industry chain is favorable and supported continuously. The motive force of DOP rising is larger, and the price of DOP is rising, but the overall DOP market is rising strongly.

In the first eight months of this year, China’s natural gas imports rose. According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China’s natural gas import volume in August 2020 was 9.36 million tons, up 13.2% over the same period last year. Among them, 5.96 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 3.4 million tons of gaseous natural gas (PNG) were imported. From January to August this year, China’s natural gas imports totaled 65.07 million tons, up 3.3% over the same period last year.

According to customs data, LNG import volume in August was 5.96 million tons, up 16.3% over the same period last year, accounting for 63.63% of the total natural gas import volume in that month. “The main reason for the rise in imports is that the international spot price of LNG in August is still at a low level. The low price of LNG spot resources has boosted the purchasing willingness of Chinese buyers. In addition, the monthly planned purchase volume of several import enterprises has increased compared with last year.” In terms of LNG production capacity of 5 million, the LNG plant in Hubei Province is shut down to a certain extent. Hubei Huanggang LNG liquid plant resources mainly flow into Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Henan, Anhui and other places, and has a common radiation area with some receiving stations in South China and East China.

“The growth of domestic demand in August also supported the growth of LNG import to a certain extent.” Lu Na said that due to the improved weather in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, the demand for vehicles picked up; the demand for urban fuel repair depots in East China increased in August; and the demand for power plants in South China was strong, all of which led to a higher LNG import volume in August than in July.

It is understood that Australia is still China’s largest LNG supplier in terms of LNG import source, but its share has declined. According to the data, 42.07% of China’s LNG came from Australia in August, an increase of 6.96% year-on-year; in August, Malaysia became the second largest supplier of China’s LNG import, accounting for 11.71% of the total LNG import volume of that month; and the next LNG supplier was Indonesia, accounting for 9.74% of the total LNG import volume of that month. In addition, it is noteworthy that China’s LNG imports from the Russian Federation accounted for 9.16% of the total LNG imports in August, ranking fourth. “Under the increasingly tense international situation, the diversification of LNG resource portfolio supply has enhanced China’s LNG supply elasticity and avoided being dominated by large resource portfolio suppliers.” According to Lu Na, China’s LNG imports from 14 countries in August, an increase of four over the previous month.

China imported 3.4 million tons of gaseous natural gas in August, up 8.0% over the same period last year. “As China imported only 13000 tons of natural gas from Kazakhstan in July, and resumed its import volume in August, which was 825800 tons, leading to large fluctuations in the import of gaseous natural gas in August.” Lu Na said that in August, the country’s general high temperature, residents and urban electricity demand increased significantly, leading to a substantial increase in gas-fired power generation demand. In addition, due to the support of rising sea gas prices in East China and North China, pipeline gas prices have been reduced in some areas, resulting in the economic performance of pipeline gas; some urban gas users and industrial users have switched back to the pipeline gas source, resulting in an increase in pipeline gas import compared with last month.

Lu Na believes that China’s natural gas imports will decline slightly in September 2020, but will increase steadily from October to December. According to the data monitoring of jinlianchuang, LNG import in September was about 5.481 million tons, which was a narrow decline compared with August. Secondly, Siberian power carried out routine maintenance from September 15 to September 22, and the import of gaseous natural gas will decline. In the next three months, the demand for heating in winter will increase, so China’s natural gas imports will continue to increase from October to December.

Commodity index: the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on September 29 was 86.87, up 1.16 points compared with yesterday, 20.31% lower than 109.01 point (2019-08-28), and 3.02% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: according to the data, in September, the mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% first stabilized and then rose, stable in the first half of the month and fluctuated in the second half. On the 1st day, the mainstream price was 1571.43 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, it was 1607.14 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.27%. This month, the price of calcium powder remained at the price of August, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid increased significantly, and it was necessary to queue up for goods. However, for polyaluminum chloride in August, the quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% showed a slight rise. Although the increase was only 0.64%, the monthly highest point was about 1582.86 yuan / ton on August 25, with the maximum amplitude of 1.19%. The main influencing factor was the price rise of calcium powder.

Upstream raw material: hydrochloric acid: according to the introduction of polyaluminum manufacturers in Henan Province, the price of hydrochloric acid in August did not rise significantly. However, in September, the purchase price of hydrochloric acid in Henan Province rose to 180 yuan / ton, which was not available at any time, but had to queue up. The rising price of hydrochloric acid caused great cost pressure on the poly aluminum chloride in September, and the export price of polyaluminum chloride rose immediately. Calcium powder: according to polyaluminium manufacturers, the price of calcium powder did not rise significantly in September, but only in August, the price of calcium powder increased by about 80-100 yuan / ton. In terms of time sequence, calcium powder and hydrochloric acid in August and hydrochloric acid in September rose in turn, prompting the price of polyaluminum chloride to continue to rise for two months. Although the price increase did not exceed 3%, the price continued well.

Downstream demand: in the traditional peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the price of polyaluminum chloride has increased obviously, which is mainly due to the continuous rise of the cost of raw materials such as calcium powder and hydrochloric acid. The demand for polyaluminum in water treatment projects is gradually increasing with the strict requirements of environmental protection inspection.

Industry: in September, the price of raw materials such as calcium powder purchased by some enterprises increased, which affected the ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride; generally speaking, the downstream demand of water treatment industry did not enter the actual sales peak season, and the market rise was mainly subject to the pressure of cost side, and the market had certain expectations for the future trend of water treatment industry.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, firstly, the rising prices of different raw materials put pressure on the cost side of polyaluminum chloride, which prompted the manufacturers to raise the ex factory prices; secondly, the traditional seasonal characteristics of “gold nine silver ten” are obvious, which is also the time when the market is most likely to rise in a year. For the future market, the manufacturers believe that under the influence of the following heating and environmental protection factors, the demand for water treatment will have a certain support, and the trend of polyaluminum chloride will be mainly raised steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on September 21 was 1866 yuan / ton, and that on September 27 was 1866 yuan / ton. The price was stable this week.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on September 21 was 2268 yuan / ton, and that on September 27 was 2268 yuan / ton. The price was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of monoammonium phosphate is stable, and the operating rate of enterprises is about 71%. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The market in Henan maintained stable operation. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium was about 1850 yuan / ton, and the start-up was stable. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.

The price of diammonium phosphate is stable this week, and the operating rate of the enterprise is about 58%. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2200-2350 yuan / ton, that of 64% diammonium in Shandong Province is 2250-2350 yuan / ton, that of 64% diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Anhui Province is 2250-2450 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2300-2450 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2500 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of raw material phosphate rock is stable, and the reference price is 376.67 yuan / ton. At present, China’s phosphate ore market is still weak and stable, with insufficient downstream purchasing power, less support for phosphate rock, and lack of large single support in the field. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term phosphorus ore market demand side improvement is not obvious.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the first ammonium into the end of the autumn phase, stable trading volume. It is expected that the weak stable operation of Monoammonium will be the main in the short term. The domestic market of diammonium is flat, the export market is good, and the supply of diammonium is relatively tight. Diammonium is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on September 25, the average price of domestic LNG was 2420 yuan / ton, up 1.68% compared with the beginning of the week, 0.55% higher than the beginning of the month, 0.68% lower on a month on month basis, and 13.98% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas rose steadily, but the range was not large. This week, the northwest region rose significantly, Shanxi, Sichuan and other places liquid prices declined, other regions sold at a stable price. At present, the off-season factors are weakened, the terminal demand is improved, the downstream replenishment before the festival is increased, the purchase heat is increased, the market trading atmosphere is improved, the liquid factory shipment is smooth, and the market gradually recovers its vitality. However, the maintenance season is coming to an end, and the maintenance enterprises in the early stage are returning to work and sales. The on-site supply is abundant, and the shipment in some areas is not smooth. The inventory is on the high side, and the liquid price is down. The overall market is in a situation of rising and falling. In terms of receiving stations, stability is mainly maintained, with sporadic small increases. Overall, domestic LNG market demand rebounded and the market gradually turned better.

There are eight days of holiday this year. During this period, logistics is not smooth. The downstream replenishment before the festival is more active. The liquid factory has no previous sales reduction before the festival. The manufacturer’s mentality is relatively peaceful. Moreover, the temperature drops. The demand for urban fuel and vehicles is good. Some manufacturers have no pressure on inventory and have enough confidence in raising prices. This week, Hubei Huanggang and other liquid factories have started to sell. The operating rate is slightly higher than that of last week, but the change is not much. The market supply is abundant, which hinders the shipment in some regions. However, there is no prominent contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the market is relatively stable.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 25, the average price in Inner Mongolia was around 2410 yuan / ton, and the price was rising; in Shaanxi, the average price was around 2680 yuan / ton, the price was up; in Shanxi, the average price was around 2590 yuan / ton, the price was down; in Xinjiang, the average price was around 2670 yuan / ton, the price was up; in Ningxia, the average price was around 2450 yuan / ton, the price was up. The price of liquid fluctuated in a narrow range, and the market was up and down.

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from September 25 to September 21

Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 m3 / D 2380 yuan / ton 2350 yuan / ton

Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 2440 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 40 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 2400 yuan / ton 2350 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2440 yuan / ton 2390 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day, 2500 yuan / ton, 2480 yuan / ton, 20 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2680 yuan / ton: 2930 yuan / ton – 250 yuan

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2480 yuan / ton 2430 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Qinshui Xinao – 2650 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton – 50 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day 3100 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton 400 yuan

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million m3 / day 2050 yuan / ton 2050 yuan / ton

Downstream methanol, Shandong methanol market negotiation price in Lubei market on 25th was 1620-1630 yuan / T, which was delivered to spot exchange. The transaction situation is expected to decline. The quotation of methanol market in southern Shandong is temporarily stable at around 1750 yuan / t spot exchange, some of which can be negotiated. Linyi receives local goods of 1710-1720 yuan / ton and delivers them without tax. There are not many offers for logistics goods. Most of the operators wait and see, and the market transaction is average. The methanol market in central Shandong is stable to 1800 yuan / ton, and the negotiated price of peripheral goods is stable at 1630-1640 yuan / ton. The transaction is relatively general, so the market will wait and see.

The domestic liquid ammonia market is stable in most regions, and the downstream demand is rigid and stable. The winter storage of urea has started, but the relief of the current high inventory is not great, and the price support is limited. For the downstream fertilizer market, with the end of the autumn fertilizer production and sales season, the downstream demand may shrink, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually decrease in the later stage Considering that liquid ammonia is stable in the near future, there is a downward risk in the medium and long term price.

Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

The market price of dichloromethane and methane chloride in Shandong Province is going up. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2570-2600 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform market is about 1980-2020 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is at a high level, and the price of methane chloride is well supported; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is poor and the support is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from business club believe that: in the near holiday season, downstream replenishment will increase, manufacturers’ shipment will turn smooth, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the domestic LNG market trend is strong, and it is expected that there will be further upward performance in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market fell slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3520 yuan / ton, down 1.12% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in North China, East China and central China will lower the listed price of toluene by 50-100 yuan / ton this week. Port inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of this week, the port inventory in East China was about 125000 tons, with a month on month decrease of about 2000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to remove the warehouse still exists, and the price is slightly weak in the near future. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand has weakened, and the long holiday is approaching, the market is slightly cautious. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3500 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the second outbreak of the global epidemic is worrying about the decline in energy demand and the difficulty in digesting the new supply of OPEC +. This week, international crude oil prices are under pressure. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $1.435/barrel to close at $41.055/barrel, down 3.38% from last week.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listing price of Sinopec’s enterprises this week was about 4600 yuan / ton, and that in East China was about 4230 yuan / ton. The latest external price is about 526 USD / T FOB Korea and 544 USD / T CFR China. PX market is expected to maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the market price fell this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3400 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 439 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / ton of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 530 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 550 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will continue to decline next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the second outbreak of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the progress of a new round of stimulus measures in the United States, as well as the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Generally speaking, xylene prices in the domestic market are expected to be weak and stable next week due to the approaching of long holidays and light trading.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price has maintained a downward trend since September. As of September 25, the average market price was 3401 yuan / ton, down 5.53% compared with the beginning of the month, and 33.93% lower than that at the beginning of the month. Crude oil price adjustment, cost side support weakened, PTA’s own spot supply is still loose, buying and selling atmosphere is flat, overall speaking, the negative atmosphere in the market is relatively strong, resulting in PTA prices all the way down.

Recent changes of PTA plant in China

Production enterprise unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit operation status

Fuhai Chuang 450 reduced the load to about 60% on August 31 and reached full load on September 7.

Ningbo Yisheng 220 was overhauled for 2 weeks on September 3 and discharged at night on September 17

Huabin Petrochemical 140 reduced its load by 50% on September 16 and resumed full load on September 21

Hailun Petrochemical 120 was overhauled on August 2 and is scheduled to restart at the end of September

Zhuhai BP 235 short stop on September 23

Hanbang Petrochemical 220 plans to overhaul for one month on September 30

Chuanneng chemical 100 plans to overhaul in October, the specific time to be determined

Yizheng Chemical fiber 65 is planned to be overhauled for about 10 days in October

Yadong petrochemical company plans to overhaul about 2 weeks in mid November

From the perspective of PTA supply, Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons reduced the load to about 60% on August 31 and reached full load on September 7; Ningbo Yisheng 2.2 million tons discharged at night on September 17; Huabin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. resumed full load on September 21; Zhuhai BP 2.35 million tons PTA plant was shut down in the evening of September 23, and the overall operating rate increased significantly to more than 92%. Supply continues to be loose, inventory is still maintained at a high level of about 4 million tons, PTA supply pressure is still large in the short term.

In the crude oil market, multiple factors have led to a large correction in international oil prices. The most concern is that the impact of the global epidemic will intensify and the demand may be suppressed. In the latest monthly report, OPEC lowered global oil demand to 90.2 million barrels / day, about 400000 barrels / day compared with the previous report. The decline in demand in India and other countries is the main reason for the adjustment. As of September 25, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was USD 40.31/barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures was USD 41.94/barrel.

In terms of downstream demand, in the traditional sales peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the polyester fiber factory was in a disadvantageous situation of loss and high finished product inventory, and the weak terminal demand led to the insufficient quality of “Jinjiu”. The overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 35-43 days, of which POY inventory is 13-17 days, FDY inventory is around 24-35 days, and DTY inventory is about 32-43 days. Near the National Day holiday, the performance of the demand side has improved. The average production and sales of major polyester factories are 110% – 120%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 300%. In terms of price, the current quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 5000-5250 yuan / ton.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that PTA plant restart and maintenance coexist at the end of the month. Next week, hailun Petrochemical’s 1.2-million-ton PTA plant will be discharged, and Hanbang’s 2.2-million-ton plant is scheduled to be overhauled. Affected by the purchasing action before the festival, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to over 74%. The price rise of some downstream polyester factories has boosted the PTA price, so there is a possibility of a slight rebound of PTA price in the short term. In October, the situation of low temperature and low fire in the downstream may continue to October. The industry is mostly pessimistic. The market is dominated by PTA oversupply, but some devices are still possible to be overhauled, which gives certain support to the price. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, PTA price fluctuates slightly and acts actively.