1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12850 yuan/ton on April 14, and 12950 yuan/ton on April 21. Caprolactam prices rose 0.78% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market price slightly adjusted this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. The market supply of caprolactam is reduced due to equipment maintenance of some enterprises, and there are still enterprises planning maintenance in the later period. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and market transactions are still acceptable.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene stabilized first and then fell. On Friday (April 21st), the price of pure benzene ranged from 7400 to 7620 yuan/ton (average price of 7510 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.87% compared to last week and a decrease of 10.7% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 7450 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions remained stable).

3、 Future Market Forecast

The caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has weakened recently, and the cost side support has weakened. However, the supply of caprolactam in the market has decreased, and the supply side has certain support. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be dominated by narrow range consolidation in the short term.

This week (4.17-4.24), the market for dichloromethane fluctuated in a narrow range. As of April 24th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% from last Monday’s 2667 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 2672 yuan/ton. The low price of raw material methanol rebounded slightly, while the cost of dichloromethane showed some short-term support; Downstream demand is weak, providing weak support for dichloromethane. However, the supply of methane chloride is still loose, and the recent narrow consolidation of the dichloromethane market is the main trend.

This week (4.17-4.24), the start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, but overall it remains loose.

This week (4.17-4.24), the price of raw material methanol rebounded slightly from the low point, while the cost of dichloromethane showed some short-term support. According to Business News, as of April 24th, the spot price of methanol was 2555 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% from last Monday’s 2530 yuan/ton.

The traditional peak season has arrived, and the refrigerant R32 market is operating at a high level, with stable operation and some support for dichloromethane. The pharmaceutical intermediate and diluent solvent industries are operating steadily, and there is a strong need for support for dichloromethane. However, there has been no significant increase in the overall demand side.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst of the Business Society, the downstream of dichloromethane is currently in need of support, but the methane chloride industry is still at a high level and the supply side is loose. Although raw material prices have rebounded slightly, it is difficult to provide strong support for dichloromethane. Due to the fundamental game of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will narrow in the short term.

This week (April 17-23, 2023), the overall performance of viscose staple fibers was calm and prices remained stable. Downstream trading is still primarily in demand, and the trading atmosphere is relatively average. Factory orders are mainly shipped, and the industry’s startup rate has slightly decreased. Currently, the overall industry load is around 72%, and the rotation of large factories has increased. The overall inventory of factories is low, and the market lacks confidence in the future.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive staple fiber in China is 13280 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of cost: The production cost of viscose staple fibers has not changed much, and the cost support is limited. The raw material dissolving pulp market is undergoing horizontal consolidation and operation, while the domestic market is maintaining stability. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and businesses often execute preliminary orders, with stable shipments being the main focus.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Downstream people’s cotton yarn transactions are average, and the price is basically maintained. However, some enterprises have reduced prices and promoted sales under inventory pressure. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 23, the average ex factory price of people’s cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17566 yuan/ton, which is consistent with last week’s price.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the performance of the viscose staple fiber market is calm, and enterprises are still mainly focused on executing orders, with firm quotations from enterprises. It is difficult for terminal demand to show significant improvement in the short term, with downstream procurement being the main focus. Analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will remain stable.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of urea in the domestic urea market rose slightly this week, from 2678.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2695.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.61%. Weekend prices have decreased by 8.27% compared to the same period last year. On April 16, the urea commodity index was 125.35, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 17.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 125.45% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Reduced cost support, increased downstream demand, and abundant urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4030.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4250.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.46%. The weekend price has decreased by 37.54% compared to the same period last year; The price of anthracite dropped slightly. This weekend, the price of anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 1260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week; The price of liquid ammonia has significantly decreased, from 3633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3416.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 5.96%. The weekend price has decreased by 31.48% compared to the same period last year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, with average support for urea prices. The downstream melamine price of urea has slightly decreased this week, dropping from 7825.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7700.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.60%.

From the perspective of demand, agricultural demand has increased while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, leading to an increase in agricultural demand. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From the perspective of supply, some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating a relatively sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late April, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Urea analysts from Business Society believe that there are ups and downs in the upstream of urea, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand has started to increase, and industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 14, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was referenced at 4900 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4800 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.08%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in early April (4.1-4.14), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a stable and upward trend. In April, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market remained stable and organized, with some devices in the dimethyl carbonate field being shut down for maintenance and spot goods gradually being shipped out. As a result, the supply on the field was relatively reduced, and the pressure on the supply side was reduced. Some dimethyl carbonate factories and suppliers slightly increased the price of carbon dioxide, with an increase of around 100-200 yuan/ton. The overall focus of the dimethyl carbonate market was narrow and upward, as of April 14, The domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4700-5000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the downstream demand side of dimethyl carbonate is relatively stable as a whole. The upward trend of dimethyl carbonate market is mostly supported by the supply side, and the downstream order taking pace is average. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will be mostly stable, with overall operation being the main focus. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of PVC spot market fell in March. On March 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 6243.33 yuan/ton, while on March 31st, the average price was 6096.67 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 2.35% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

PVC spot market prices fell in March. In the first half of March, there was relatively little price fluctuation. The price of calcium carbide sharply decreased in the second half of the month, resulting in weak support for raw materials. The spot price of PVC fell. On the 24th, the spot market price of PVC rebounded. On the whole, it mainly fell in the second half of the month. At present, transactions in the spot market are average, and downstream enterprises mainly rely on demand for goods, with low purchasing enthusiasm. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5830-6250 yuan/ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on March 30th, international crude oil futures saw a significant increase. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.37 per barrel, an increase of $1.40 or 1.9%. Brent crude oil futures rose, with the main contract settlement price at $78.60 per barrel, an increase of $1.01 or 1.6%. The unexpected decline in commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, coupled with the obstruction of crude oil exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq, has provided significant support for the oil market.

In terms of calcium carbide, the mainstream factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased in February. The price of calcium carbide decreased from 3483.33 yuan/ton on March 1 to 3133.33 yuan/ton on March 31, a decrease of 10.05%. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal has stabilized at a low level, while the cost support for calcium carbide is average. The downstream PVC market has recently slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. Stacking high levels of calcium carbide inventory results in oversupply. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly and decrease, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from the business community believe that the PVC spot market price fell this month, and the upstream carbide price fell, which is weak support. The overall market confidence is insufficient, and traders and downstream companies have a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Primarily purchasing on demand. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term.

In March, the market for chloroform fell sharply. According to data from Business News Agency, as of March 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2675 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 16.41% from 3200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the monthly high was 3450 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has dropped significantly, while the cost of chloroform has declined significantly; At the beginning of the month, the supply side pressure in the trichloromethane market was relatively low, coupled with the rise in the downstream refrigerant peak season R22 price, which timely replenished the inventory of trichloromethane, driving the price of trichloromethane up slightly; In the second half of the month, with the early shutdown, the restart of the load reduction device, or the lifting of the load to normal operation, the pressure on the supply side of trichloromethane increased. In addition, the centralized replenishment of the downstream warehouse ended, resulting in light transaction in the later period, and a significant decline in the price of trichloromethane.

In March, the start of trichloromethane production was relatively low at the beginning of the month and increased in the later period, resulting in a gradual increase in supply side pressure.

In March, the price of raw material methanol fell sharply, while the cost of chloroform fell sharply. According to the business news agency, as of March 31, the spot price of methanol was 2561 yuan/ton, down 6.37% from 2735 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

On the one hand, the total production quota for R22 was reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. On the other hand, since the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, the price of R22 has been strong, and there is a replenishment demand for chloroform. However, due to the impact of quota reduction, the overall demand continues to decrease compared to previous years. In mid to late March, downstream support for chloroform gradually weakened.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business News, although the supply side of chloroform is currently under great pressure, coupled with lower costs, it is expected that the market for chloroform will consolidate in a weak manner in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 29, 2023, the factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was referenced at 4800 yuan/ton. Compared to March 1, 2023 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5133 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.49%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, from March to now (3.1-3.30), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market has been weak and in a downward trend. At the beginning of this month, supported by the high cost side, the dimethyl carbonate market slightly increased and operated, but due to the continued general demand of downstream factories and terminals, and insufficient demand boost, although the supply side of dimethyl carbonate decreased slightly, it still could not continue to support the high and stable operation of the dimethyl carbonate market. From mid to late March, domestic dimethyl carbonate began to experience a cold downturn, with weak effective support on the market, The focus of the transaction has been constantly declining. As of March 30, the decline in the dimethyl carbonate market is around 300-500 yuan/ton. As of March 30, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4400-5000 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate trading on the market is general, the transmission of supply and demand is relatively slow, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. The business agency’s dimethyl carbonate data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic market for dimethyl carbonate is mainly weak in terms of consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

Overview of trend of metal magnesium in March

In March, domestic magnesium ingot prices first fell and then stabilized, with signs of bottoming out and rebounding at the end of the month. The daily average price of magnesium ingots fluctuates between 20000 and 21500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20745.98 yuan/ton during the cycle, and the fluctuation range of commodities is -4.21%. In the early months of this month, due to the continued weakness of downstream demand, magnesium prices continued to decline, even falling below 20000 yuan/ton, hitting a new low in nearly a year and a half. Magnesium plants have little profit or even loss, but they are not willing to continue to reduce prices and shipments. They have begun to stabilize their prices. The quotation has been firm at 20000 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers have chosen not to quote. At the end of the month, magnesium prices showed a trend of bottoming out, rebounding and rising. The cost side of the blue carbon industry limited production and guaranteed prices, and multiple manufacturers reduced production and stopped production, providing sufficient support to the magnesium market.

According to the price monitoring by the Business Agency, as of February 29, the spot exchange including tax in the magnesium ingot market was 20500 yuan/ton, down about 900 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 4.21%, and a decrease of 49.59% compared to last year.

Supply and demand

The price of metal magnesium has been severely inverted, and the number of manufacturers that have cut production and stopped production has increased again, boosting confidence in the magnesium market. However, downstream procurement remains cautious, and overall demand for magnesium powder and magnesium alloy is cold. Moreover, the international economic situation is unstable, and overseas orders have decreased. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 65100 tons of various magnesium products from January to February 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 16.00%. Among them, 33600 tons of magnesium ingots were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 19.23%; Magnesium alloy exports totaled 19200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.11%; A total of 10200 tons of magnesium powder were exported, a year-on-year increase of 17.07%.

Ferrosilicon fell 4.41% in March

On the 29th, the average market price in Ningxia was 7592.86 yuan/ton, and in March, the ferrosilicon market was operating in a weak state. However, with the introduction of limited production quotations by Lancan, and the increase in production cuts and furnace shutdowns by some ferrosilicon factories, the market’s low sentiment has improved somewhat.

In March, the price of blue carbon weakened first and then stabilized. Upstream ferrosilicon enterprises avoided peak production, while downstream demand was weak. Both supply and demand were weak, and the price of blue carbon was under pressure. However, on the 25th, Shenmu and other orchid industry associations and key enterprises proposed to limit production and maintain prices, and issued a minimum guidance price for orchid: 1350 yuan/ton for medium materials, 1300 yuan/ton for small materials, and 1000 yuan/ton for coke surface. Some enterprises in the market have adjusted the price of orchid, while the implementation of other enterprises remains to be observed. In the short term, the orchid market may operate steadily, forming a bottom support for magnesium ingots.

Aftermarket Forecast

Overall, the overall price of magnesium ingots in March was weak, with both supply and demand parties making tentative suggestions, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. At present, the price of magnesium ingots has increased somewhat, and magnesium factories are actively pricing, but the acceptance of high-priced downstream sources is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term

According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Society, the price of 1 # tin ingot in East China has been rising continuously recently, and the price has basically risen back to 196910 yuan/ton on December 24, basically recovering the decline in March. On March 17th, the average market price was 183910 yuan/ton, and on March 24th, the average market price was 196610 yuan/ton, up 6.91% in the week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, influenced by macro factors, tin prices have risen for three consecutive months, with a single monthly decline of 11.35% since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the price of tin ingots has increased for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 9.43% as of the 24th.

In the futures market, Lunxi continued to rise this week. In the macro aspect, UBS purchased Credit Suisse this week, which stabilized some market sentiment and boosted the metal market sentiment. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the US Treasury Secretary issued a statement saying, “We will take actions to protect depositors when necessary.” Market confidence was restored, and the US dollar index was weak and consolidated. This action reversed the downward trend of US stocks. During the week, the market’s risk aversion sentiment eased, and the metal market was boosted. Overall, the Bank of London rose 3.91% in a single day.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent constraints on tin ore supply have not been limited eased, and processing fees have fallen again. As of the 24th, processing fees in Yunnan were between 13000-14500 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1600 yuan/ton, which also confirms the situation of tight supply at the mining end. However, it will take some time for this tension to transfer to the spot market supply, and the current supply of tin ingots is relatively stable. In terms of demand, there is still no significant improvement, and market expectations are generally weak. In terms of inventory, currently, tin inventory is generally low, and low inventory also provides some support to the market. Due to the characteristics of low inventory, tin market prices are also relatively vulnerable to macroeconomic fluctuations, with significant fluctuations. In a comprehensive view, the Business Society believes that the tin market has significantly increased recently. In addition to the positive macro outlook, the market is expected to be strongly supported by tight supply and low inventory in the future. It is expected that the market will maintain a strong trend in the near future. In the future, it is necessary to focus on changes in tin ingot supply and the impact of inventory changes on market sentiment.

As of March 24th, there were 2410 tons of LME tin in the London Metal Exchange, and the inventory has continued to decline since 22 years, dropping from the highest level of 5160 tons to the lowest level of 2380 tons in the above cycle, with a height difference of 2780 tons. Currently, the overall LME tin inventory is relatively low.

The base metal index stood at 1210 points on March 25, unchanged from yesterday, down 25.12% from its cycle high of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 88.47% from its low of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring by the Business News Agency, in the 12th week of 2023 (3.20-3.24), there were 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose on a month-on-month basis. The top three commodities that rose were tin (4.77%), dysprosium oxide (2.56%), and copper (2.34%). A total of 13 commodities fell on a month-on-month basis, with the top three falling products being praseodymium oxide (- 4.31%), metallic praseodymium (- 4.19%), and metallic silicon (- 1.97%). This week’s average rise and fall was – 0.21%.