According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Society, the price of 1 # tin ingot in East China has been rising continuously recently, and the price has basically risen back to 196910 yuan/ton on December 24, basically recovering the decline in March. On March 17th, the average market price was 183910 yuan/ton, and on March 24th, the average market price was 196610 yuan/ton, up 6.91% in the week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, influenced by macro factors, tin prices have risen for three consecutive months, with a single monthly decline of 11.35% since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the price of tin ingots has increased for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 9.43% as of the 24th.

In the futures market, Lunxi continued to rise this week. In the macro aspect, UBS purchased Credit Suisse this week, which stabilized some market sentiment and boosted the metal market sentiment. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the US Treasury Secretary issued a statement saying, “We will take actions to protect depositors when necessary.” Market confidence was restored, and the US dollar index was weak and consolidated. This action reversed the downward trend of US stocks. During the week, the market’s risk aversion sentiment eased, and the metal market was boosted. Overall, the Bank of London rose 3.91% in a single day.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent constraints on tin ore supply have not been limited eased, and processing fees have fallen again. As of the 24th, processing fees in Yunnan were between 13000-14500 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1600 yuan/ton, which also confirms the situation of tight supply at the mining end. However, it will take some time for this tension to transfer to the spot market supply, and the current supply of tin ingots is relatively stable. In terms of demand, there is still no significant improvement, and market expectations are generally weak. In terms of inventory, currently, tin inventory is generally low, and low inventory also provides some support to the market. Due to the characteristics of low inventory, tin market prices are also relatively vulnerable to macroeconomic fluctuations, with significant fluctuations. In a comprehensive view, the Business Society believes that the tin market has significantly increased recently. In addition to the positive macro outlook, the market is expected to be strongly supported by tight supply and low inventory in the future. It is expected that the market will maintain a strong trend in the near future. In the future, it is necessary to focus on changes in tin ingot supply and the impact of inventory changes on market sentiment.

As of March 24th, there were 2410 tons of LME tin in the London Metal Exchange, and the inventory has continued to decline since 22 years, dropping from the highest level of 5160 tons to the lowest level of 2380 tons in the above cycle, with a height difference of 2780 tons. Currently, the overall LME tin inventory is relatively low.

The base metal index stood at 1210 points on March 25, unchanged from yesterday, down 25.12% from its cycle high of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 88.47% from its low of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring by the Business News Agency, in the 12th week of 2023 (3.20-3.24), there were 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose on a month-on-month basis. The top three commodities that rose were tin (4.77%), dysprosium oxide (2.56%), and copper (2.34%). A total of 13 commodities fell on a month-on-month basis, with the top three falling products being praseodymium oxide (- 4.31%), metallic praseodymium (- 4.19%), and metallic silicon (- 1.97%). This week’s average rise and fall was – 0.21%.