Recent price trends of urea

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of urea in the domestic urea market rose slightly this week, from 2678.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2695.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.61%. Weekend prices have decreased by 8.27% compared to the same period last year. On April 16, the urea commodity index was 125.35, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 17.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 125.45% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Reduced cost support, increased downstream demand, and abundant urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4030.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4250.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.46%. The weekend price has decreased by 37.54% compared to the same period last year; The price of anthracite dropped slightly. This weekend, the price of anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 1260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week; The price of liquid ammonia has significantly decreased, from 3633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3416.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 5.96%. The weekend price has decreased by 31.48% compared to the same period last year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, with average support for urea prices. The downstream melamine price of urea has slightly decreased this week, dropping from 7825.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7700.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.60%.

From the perspective of demand, agricultural demand has increased while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, leading to an increase in agricultural demand. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From the perspective of supply, some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating a relatively sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late April, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Urea analysts from Business Society believe that there are ups and downs in the upstream of urea, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand has started to increase, and industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.