1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 792 yuan/ton. On July 10th, the average market price in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52%, and a decrease of 36.27% compared to the same period last year. On July 9th, the caustic soda commodity index was 113.38, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.29% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 74.14% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda in China is weak this week. The current average market price in Shandong region is around 690-800 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for 32% liquid alkali in Hebei region is around 720-900 yuan/ton. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has declined, and although there have been equipment maintenance by caustic soda enterprises, the overall results are average. The short-term demand for downstream alumina is average, with more purchases made on demand and a supply-demand game. The price of caustic soda remains weak.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 27th week of 2023 (7.3-7.7), there was one commodity that rose, three commodities that fell, and three commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: calcium carbide (0.58%); The main commodities falling are: flake alkali (-1.20%), caustic soda (-0.51%), and PVC (-0.27%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.2%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and overall inventory in the supply side is high. Downstream alumina is still purchasing more on demand, and the ordering sentiment is average. The supply and demand game comprehensively predicts the future or weak operating market, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from June 30 to July 7, 2023, the auction price of crude benzene increased from 5465 yuan/ton last weekend to 5631.25 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 3.04%.

In terms of crude oil: WTI crude oil has shown an overall upward trend during this cycle. Against the backdrop of interest rate hikes, economic concerns still exist, but the deepening of production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia continues to provide support, and international oil prices fluctuate. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 08 increased by 0.01 USD/barrel or 0.01% to 71.80 USD/barrel; ICE oil futures contract 09 dropped by $0.13 per barrel, or 0.17%, at $76.52 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2308, rose 4.5 yuan to 558.2 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.7 yuan to 557.5 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on July 7, 2023, and is currently at 6300 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6350 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6303 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6300 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On July 3rd, the price of pure benzene was 6203 yuan/ton, and on Friday (July 7th), the price of pure benzene was 6260 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% compared to last week and a decrease of 32.56% compared to the same period last year

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a slight increase after ten consecutive weeks of decline.

In terms of industrial chain: During this cycle, crude oil and styrene have overall risen, boosting the mindset of the industrial chain. The pure benzene market has slightly increased, with Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increasing to 6300 yuan/ton. The factory price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has generally risen to 6200-6250 yuan/ton this week.

During this cycle, the auction price of crude benzene has collectively strengthened, with the mainstream price in Shandong region being 5680 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton. In Shanxi region, there has been a significant increase of 5600-5660 yuan/ton, an increase of 300-410 yuan/ton. The price difference in the main domestic production areas has narrowed. In terms of supply, the operating rate of coking enterprises this week is still around 75%, and the supply of crude benzene has not changed much compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, recent hydrogenation benzene enterprises have slightly rebounded, but overall profits are low. The price of hydrogenation benzene in the main production area was 6250 yuan/ton, an increase of 50-100 yuan/ton, indicating a moderate demand for crude benzene. Overall, the strengthening of crude oil and styrene has driven the market mentality of the industrial chain, and the overall strength of the industrial chain this week. In the future, there is still an upward expectation for crude oil, and there is still support for the industrial chain. It is expected that the market will remain stable with a strong trend and there is room for a slight increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly decreased this week. On June 25th, the market price of aniline was 10800 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.55% compared to last week.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, East China pure benzene reached 6040-6100 yuan/ton, with styrene prices rebounding on the market and pure benzene spot prices following suit, resulting in average demand. The mentality of picking up goods on the Shandong market has improved, and the transaction is better at 6060-6130 yuan/ton. On Friday (June 30th), the price of pure benzene was 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from last week and 34.9% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: Domestic nitric acid prices have slightly decreased this week. On June 25th, the price was 1966 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 1950 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 2.5% compared to last week and 33.89% compared to the same period last year.

3、 Future expectations

At present, various maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the supply of aniline has improved. However, with the arrival of the off-season in summer, downstream factories have weak stocking intentions, weak demand, and imbalanced supply and demand. Today, the price of aniline is stable and we will wait and see.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene has shown a stepwise downward trend this month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7130 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 7060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 0.98% compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of crude oil, in the first half of the year, the United States House of Representatives passed the bill related to the Debt limit of the United States, and several officials of the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate hikes would be suspended in June. Investors’ concerns about the economic outlook declined; There have been disagreements within OPEC+regarding the need for further production cuts. In addition to Saudi Arabia’s announcement of an additional 1 million barrels per day reduction in July, which is beneficial for oil prices, countries such as Russia, Iran, and Brazil have higher exports, which weakens the effectiveness of OPEC’s production cuts; The IEA predicts that oil supply will continue to be tight next year, especially in the second half of 2024.

In the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, which met expectations. There is still a possibility of interest rate hikes in July, and market risks remain; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; On the 24th, the “24-hour mutiny” by Russian mercenary Wagner sparked global attention, and the Wagner incident intensified concerns in the international crude oil market about the stability of Russian oil exports; Following the Wagner incident, the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified; On the evening of the 28th, EIA commercial crude oil inventory significantly decreased, with a decrease of 9.6 million barrels, exceeding market expectations. US crude oil exports increased significantly, boosting international oil prices.

The crude oil price fluctuated and fluctuated in June. On June 30th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil by the trading company was 69.56 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.14% compared to the beginning of this month (69.46 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 74.24 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.72% compared to the beginning of this month (73.71 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream: In terms of TDI, this month’s TDI price showed an upward trend before June 21, but slowly declined at the end of the month. On June 1, the TDI benchmark price was 16200 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the price rose to 17300 yuan/ton. During the month, it increased by 1100 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.79%. This month, the domestic TDI market rebounded after rising. In the early stage, merchants were cautious and their intention to sell was reduced. The offer was tentative and upward. In the later off-season, demand was poor in the downstream market, and the enthusiasm for buying in the market was average. There were few new orders traded on the market, and the main downstream sponge industry saw a significant reduction in volume. In the early stage, there were many stocks in the downstream, and high prices suppressed purchasing sentiment.

Downstream, the overall domestic PX price remained stable this month, with a slight increase at the end of the month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of PX was 8200 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 8250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61%. The supply of PX was normal in June, and the demand for oil transfer in Europe and America has rebounded since June. The price of raw material MX has been strong, boosting market sentiment. The operating rate of domestic PX is over 70%, but there is little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some PX devices, and PX prices have slightly increased.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fluctuated this month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8409.0/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 8468.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 59.6 yuan/ton or 0.71% compared to the beginning of the month. The use of oil for car air conditioners in summer has increased, and during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the radius and frequency of private car travel have increased, leading to an increase in gasoline market demand and an increase in oil prices; Operators maintain a cautious attitude towards replenishment and prioritize market transactions based on demand; Towards the end of the month, the sales pressure of the main units is high, and domestic gasoline prices are under pressure and declining.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The inflation level in the United States is still higher than expected, and Powell stated that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates twice more this year, and does not rule out the possibility of continuous rate hikes; The European Central Bank also stated that it cannot end the interest rate hike cycle in the short term, and the expectation of overseas demand remains weak against the backdrop of high interest rates, which limits the upward space for oil prices; With Saudi Arabia approaching a production reduction of 1 million barrels per day in July, oil prices have been supported; Recently, the international crude oil market has continued a long short game trend. Due to the impact of fundamentals, downstream terminal demand for toluene is weak, and the market is cautious. It is expected that toluene will continue to weaken and consolidate next month. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.

1、 Analysis of Acetic Acid Industry Chain

From the price rise and fall chart of the acetic acid industry chain in June, it can be seen that the entire range of acetic acid and downstream products has declined. Methanol (0.85%) in the upstream of the industrial chain has not changed much, and the cost side benefits are not much, but the downstream cost pressure is becoming increasingly severe. The decline in acetic acid was significant, exceeding 10%. The main downstream products continued their downward trend, with prices of ethyl acetate (-1.95%) and butyl ester (-4.96%) falling.

2、 Analysis of upstream acetic acid market trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of acetic acid fell in June, especially in the second half of the month, with an accelerated decline and a straight downward trend. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3250 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 2880 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 10.36% during the month.

In June, the domestic acetic acid market was weak and weak, with low raw material prices and insufficient cost support. Downstream demand on the demand side was not good, and purchasing in the market immediately needed to follow up. In the early stage, there was maintenance of acetic acid plants on the market, but due to light market trading, the performance of acetic acid rose weakly, and the transaction center remained low. In the later stage, the maintenance plants restarted, and the market supply increased. The confidence of operators was insufficient, resulting in a significant decline in acetic acid prices. As of the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of East China acetic acid is in the range of 2800-2900 yuan/ton.

3、 Analysis of the market trend of ethyl acetate

This month, domestic ethyl acetate saw a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly decline of ethyl acetate was 1.95%. Towards the end of the month, the market price of ethyl acetate was between 6500-6650 yuan/ton.

Specifically, in June, the trading atmosphere for ethyl acetate was light, with downstream procurement being mainly in demand. The ethyl acetate markets in East, Central, and South China all showed varying degrees of decline, and the market stabilized at the end of the month, accompanied by slight upward movements by some manufacturers in East China. At the end of the month, prices have increased to varying degrees. The market supply and demand pattern has improved. But throughout June, due to weak demand, overall market shipments remained at a low level. The prices of raw materials and acetic acid have plummeted significantly this month, with a drop of over 10%. Weak cost support.

4、 Analysis of the Market Trend of Butyl Acetate

This month, the domestic butyl acetate experienced a significant decline, mainly due to cost bearishness, a decline in raw materials, and weak supply and demand. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the monthly decline of butyl acetate is 4.96%. At the end of the month, the domestic butyl ester price range is between 7200 to 7400 yuan/ton.

Specifically, the significant decline in raw material acetic acid this month has brought downward momentum to downstream butyl esters. Due to the easing of cost pressure, enterprises are more inclined to sell at reduced prices in the face of sluggish demand. More importantly, due to the weak supply and demand side, the price of butyl ester has not emerged from the haze. Downstream procurement is more on demand, and manufacturers are more on demand, resulting in sluggish transactions. However, the operating rate of the butyl acetate industry has remained low, generally below 40%, and the price increase behavior of manufacturers has to some extent alleviated the downward trend of butyl acetate.

5、 Future prospects of the acetic acid industry chain

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that in the short term, the market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the cost side may face a long and short transition. In the early stage, the price of acetic acid has significantly decreased, and currently, the adjustment is basically in place, and the market has the power to stabilize and rebound. It is expected that the cost side may face favorable conditions in the later stage. However, from the perspective of both supply and demand, the market remains weak. Supply and demand are basically maintaining a weak balance, especially downstream ethyl and butyl ester enterprises with generally low operating rates. Social inventory is generally not high. It is expected that there will be little significant decline in prices in the later stage, and there is a high probability of volatility.

In June 2023, the domestic market of 1 # antimony ingot will fluctuate downward. The average market price in East China will be 82625 yuan/ton on the first day and 81625 yuan/ton on the 28th, down 1.21%.

On June 27th, the antimony commodity index was 113.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 6.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.46 points (2023 March 15), and an increase of 141.87% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently shown an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. In March, prices fell broadly, while in April and May, the trend remained stable. In June, prices continued to decline for three consecutive weeks.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market slightly lowered in June, with a quotation of $11850/ton as of the 28th, a decrease of $200/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of industrial chain, the antimony oxide market followed the trend of antimony ingots in June and slightly decreased by 500 yuan/ton per month, driven by the antimony ingot market. Market trading was light, and downstream demand was overall weak.

In June, the antimony ingot market experienced a downward trend due to fluctuations. In the past three months of supply and demand competition, the willingness of antimony ingot manufacturers to stand up for prices decreased, resulting in a downward trend in antimony ingot prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, the market has not changed much this month. In terms of supply, the operating situation of smelters remains basically unchanged, and manufacturers still maintain a mentality of being reluctant to sell. In terms of demand, the sales situation of downstream antimony oxide is still weak, and the overall performance of the downstream market is poor, with cold market trading and overall weak operation. In the second half of June, market news stated that there are expectations of an improvement in the import situation at the mining end in the future, and the market expects an increase in supply in the future. In the absence of downstream demand support, the antimony ingot market is operating empty. The overseas situation is also not optimistic. The European region is about to enter a summer break, and overseas demand is expected to decline. According to the latest export data, the export volume of antimony oxide and antimony ingots has decreased. The weakness of the overseas market also affects the mentality of the domestic market, and the market’s outlook for the future is not good. Overall, there is a weak balance between supply and demand in the market, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. It is difficult for downstream demand markets to improve expectations, and in the case of sluggish demand, the market performance tends to be weak. In the future, the business society predicts that the antimony ingot market will mainly operate in a stable and weak manner.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash is temporarily stable. The average market price of light soda ash from June 20th to June 27th was 1960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.88% compared to the same period last year. On June 26th, the light soda ash commodity index was 100.51, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 46.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 59.16% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has temporarily stabilized this week. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 1900-2100 yuan/ton. The current market price of light soda ash in North China is about 2000-2200 yuan/ton. Data shows that the weekly operating rate of soda ash is around 91%.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, glass prices are operating in a weak trend. On June 20th, the average market price was 22.06 yuan/square meter, while on June 27th, the average market price was 21.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.34%. The market turnover in East China is general, and the downstream and traders just need to replenish. The market maintains stable operation. The overall production and marketing in Central China is average, the market price has slightly decreased, and downstream and traders just need to replenish. The spot trading situation of South China glass is average, and the market transactions are flexible. Forecast: the glass Spot market is weak in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 25th week of 2023 (6.19-6.23), there were 0 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities falling include caustic soda (-1.92%) and flake soda (-0.40%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.33%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of soda ash is temporarily stable and the price fluctuation is relatively small. The soda ash plant is relatively stable, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable. Recently, downstream soda ash has been purchased on demand, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of soda ash will fluctuate in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the auction price of the high-temperature Coal tar market rose slightly this week. From June 16 to June 25, the domestic Coal tar price rose from 3725 yuan/ton to 3842.5 yuan/ton, and the price rose by 3.15% in the cycle.

This week, the auction price of Coal tar in major domestic production areas basically rose, with slightly different increases in different regions. Among them, Shanxi region is around 3820-3870 yuan/ton, with an increase of 70-200 yuan/ton. The Shandong region is 3930 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton. Hebei region is 3750 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan/ton. Jiangsu region is 3930 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above monthly Coal tar K column chart, it can be seen that since November 2022, the Coal tar market has declined for three consecutive months. The price recovered in February, fell sharply in March, and the decline again expanded in April. The weekly K column chart shows that the Coal tar market fell for six consecutive weeks, rose sharply for three consecutive weeks, and rose slightly by 3.15% this week after falling 14.61%.

This week, the auction price of Coal tar in major domestic production areas basically rose, with slightly different increases in different regions. This week, the coking enterprises started work at about 75%, basically flat compared with last week. The supply of Coal tar has little change compared with the previous period, and is slightly tight overall. In terms of demand, the deep processing industry started relatively stably this week, and the demand for Coal tar market is acceptable. The price of coal tar has also risen recently, supporting the rising of tar price this week. In the near future, the price of tar market fluctuates greatly, and the downstream product market is expected to be better near the end of the month, supporting the tar market mentality. The business community expects that the Coal tar market will have a small increase in the short term, but the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the price trend of the downstream coal tar and other major commodities.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, at the beginning of the week, the first grade industrial Potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 5250 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the first grade industrial Potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 5350 yuan/ton, up 1.90%, 3.38% month on month, and the current price fell 29.95% year on year.

Potassium nitrate

The domestic Potassium nitrate market rose this week. It can be seen from the figure above that the Potassium nitrate market has risen for two weeks in a row recently. Recently, the upstream Potassium chloride market has been consolidated, the Potassium nitrate inventory has remained low, the downstream demand is good, the market transaction is positive, and the Potassium nitrate market has risen. According to the statistics of the business agency, this week the mainstream manufacturers of Potassium nitrate in China quoted 5200-5400 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

The domestic market of imported Potassium chloride fell slightly this week, from 2825.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2762.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 2.21%. On June 18, the Potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 87.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.77% from the peak of 174.60 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 50.56% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. The overall trend of Potassium chloride market in late June may fall in a narrow range, mainly finishing.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market is still in a weak consolidation state, but the Potassium nitrate stock is tight, and the market supply falls short of demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 173.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 37.09% year-on-year. On June 18th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 45.53, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.98% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 153.23% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support, weakened downstream procurement

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market price fell slightly, from 1756.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1752.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.21%. Weekend prices fell by 21.41% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 610.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 61.64% year-on-year. Overall, there is insufficient upstream support and average downstream demand.

Future Market Forecast

In late June, the market price of hydrochloric acid may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market declined slightly, while the ammonium chloride market was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream purchase intention was weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.