The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the DOP price was 8226.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 8.99% compared to the DOP price of 9038.75 yuan/ton on December 1st. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of raw materials has fallen, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased. However, the downward trend of DOP is slower than that of isooctanol. The profit of plasticizer DOP is high, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer enterprises to start production is high. The operating rate of plasticizers is high, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. During the off-season of downstream PVC, the demand for plasticizers is average, and the risk of excess inventory of plasticizer DOP is increasing, resulting in fluctuating prices of plasticizer DOP.

Downstream demand is lukewarm

Downstream PVC product enterprises have low production rates, and the downstream market is traditionally off-season, resulting in a decrease in downstream PVC production. The winter in the north continues, and the demand for plasticizers is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

Raw material prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of isooctanol was 7600 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 16.79% compared to the price of 9133.33 yuan/ton on December 1st. In December, the production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable at a high level, and coupled with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, the supply of isooctanol increased significantly in December. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the increment of octanol, and there is an oversupply of isooctanol, which increases the downward pressure on isooctanol. In December, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol dropped significantly in December, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of demand, during the off-season of the market, downstream PVC companies have seen a decrease in production, resulting in average demand for plasticizers; On the supply side, plasticizer companies have high profits, and their enthusiasm for starting production has increased. However, plasticizer companies are operating at high levels, resulting in an oversupply of plasticizers. In the future, the price of raw material isooctanol has dropped significantly, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased; In addition, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the polyester filament market first fell and then rose in December, with a slight correction in prices at the end of the month. On December 31st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6800-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8100-8500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7300-7500 yuan/ton, with a partial adjustment of the center of gravity.

At the beginning of the month, geopolitical conflicts escalated, leading to fluctuations in international oil prices and increased cost support. However, downstream demand is gradually weakening, which has a negative impact on the filament market. Market transactions tend to lean towards low prices, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting. In order to increase sales, the company has increased the discount on actual orders, further exacerbating the tight cash flow situation of the filament. The company’s desire to repair profits has become stronger, and the market focus has slightly rebounded.

In mid month, the European Union decided to impose new sanctions on Russian oil exports, and with the boost of Chinese policies, US oil prices broke through the $70 mark, making cost support more stable. Meanwhile, mainstream filament factories announced joint production cuts, further boosting market sentiment. Due to the low prices of filament, downstream manufacturers are making purchases one after another, resulting in a rapid decrease in market inventory and tight spot supply.

At the end of the month, the inventory pressure in the filament market has eased, and with the gradual implementation of production reduction and maintenance plans, the market supply is showing a positive trend. However, downstream users are mainly busy with finishing work, focusing on payment collection, and have a low willingness to purchase filament, resulting in a return to sluggish market transactions.

In terms of cost, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a fluctuating adjustment trend in December. As of December 27th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4767 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% from the beginning of the month. The raw material market first fell and then rebounded this month, but the decline was significant at the beginning of the month, resulting in a decrease in average costs compared to the previous month. The future geopolitical situation, China’s policies, and crude oil supply will have an impact on international crude oil prices, and there is a possibility of cost strengthening. However, the overall driving force of PTA supply and demand is limited, and industry players still have concerns. It is expected that the PTA market will mainly fluctuate weakly next month.

In terms of production and sales, filament enterprises will gradually implement year-end maintenance plans, and the market operating rate will further decrease. Downstream textile companies have limited capital recovery, making it difficult to carry out large-scale stocking. Some factories plan to shut down and take a holiday around New Year’s Day, and the weaving machine start-up rate will continue to decline, resulting in a bearish demand expectation.

Business analysts believe that overall, the polyester filament market will show a fluctuating trend. Due to the lack of favorable support for cost demand expectations, but with low inventory and continuous supply reduction, the company has a strong willingness to raise prices. Therefore, the market trend may continue the upward trend, but the price fluctuation is relatively small, expected to be between 50-100 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 30, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7116 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 7366 yuan/ton on December 1, the price has decreased by 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.39%.

In December, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong region of China showed a fluctuating downward trend. In the first two days of the month, the n-butanol market was weak and declining, with a light trading atmosphere. Subsequently, n-butanol factories actively shipped and downstream restocked at low prices, slightly boosting demand. The n-butanol market saw a narrow rise. On December 6th, the n-butanol market price in Shandong region was referenced at 7466 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.36% compared to the beginning of the month.

After rising to a high level, the high priced shipments of n-butanol in the market were hindered, and the transmission of supply and demand in the market weakened. The supply of n-butanol factories was under pressure, so they offered discounts for shipments. The downstream demand conversion of n-butanol was average, and downstream users restocked at low prices. The focus of the n-butanol market continued to move towards a low level, and it operated weakly until the end of the month. As of December 30th, the reference price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region was 7050-7200 yuan/ton.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ December 30th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7050-7200 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7500-7550 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7400-7450 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is average, and downstream demand is cautious in restocking. The overall focus of the market is on the low-end. Due to the slow pace of recent shipments, the overall inventory in the market has slightly increased. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly focus on interval adjustment and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 1546 yuan/ton. On December 26th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 102.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.49% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 16.25% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1450-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1750 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1538 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen weakly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6575 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 1.35% compared to the price of 6487.50 yuan/ton on December 16. Stable operation of phthalic anhydride equipment and sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride; This week, the phthalic anhydride market is mainly focused on wait-and-see, with limited actual orders. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride rose and then fell, while the price of nano phthalic anhydride remained weak and consolidated. The price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

This week, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants remained stable at a high level, with 70% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at full capacity. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers is stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the price of ortho xylene was 6700 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene at 6700 yuan/ton on December 16; Compared to December 1st, the price of ortho xylene fluctuated and fell by 6900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.90%. This week, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride has remained stable, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has stabilized, reducing the downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride. The price of industrial naphthalene is stabilizing, and the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is stabilizing. The overall downward pressure on the cost of phthalic anhydride raw materials has weakened, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices has also weakened.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 23, the DOP price was 8326.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 8576.25 yuan/ton on December 16. Plasticizer companies have a high enthusiasm for starting production, with a high operating rate of plasticizers. The demand for phthalic anhydride still exists, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is low. The situation of new orders is average, and the support for phthalic anhydride rising still exists.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is stabilizing, the price of industrial naphthalene is weakly consolidating, the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is decreasing, and the pressure of phthalic anhydride cost decline still exists; In terms of demand, the operating load of DOP manufacturers remains stable at a high level, while the demand support for phthalic anhydride still exists. Overall, the pressure of cost decline still exists, with certain demand support, and it is expected that the phthalic anhydride market will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 952 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.83% and a year-on-year increase of 9.24%. On December 19th, the chemical index was 833 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.50% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 39.30% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is weakly declining, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 820-880 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is weak, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). This week, as the main downstream procurement prices have declined, affecting the market atmosphere, caustic soda prices have also declined. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and the industry is mainly observing and observing.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 50th week of 2024 (12.9-12.13), there were 0 products with rising prices, 1 product with falling prices, and 5 products with zero rising and falling prices in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodity experiencing a decline is caustic soda (-2.20%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.37%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda prices have been weak, the alumina industry has been fluctuating, and non aluminum industry demand has been weak. Downstream consumers are mainly cautious and watching, and the supply-demand game is comprehensive. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to 13th, the domestic aggregated MDI market operated relatively strongly, with an average price of 18150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 18183 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.18% during the period and a year-on-year increase of 14.12%. During the week, the domestic aggregated MDI market remained stable and rose, with downstream companies entering the market at a low price and primary demand. The supply side remained tight, which boosted the market and led to a slight increase in aggregated MDI prices.

On the supply side, Shanghai Huntsman’s 350000 ton plant will undergo maintenance for approximately one month. Shanghai Covestro’s 600000 ton plant will undergo maintenance in late November, lasting approximately 25 days. The 400000 ton MDI plant of BASF in Chongqing began maintenance on December 15th and is expected to be maintained for about a month.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has seen a slight increase. As of December 13th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 7793 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is stable. As of December 13th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 9525 yuan/ton. The overall impact of aggregating MDI costs is relatively small.

On the demand side, there is insufficient follow-up on downstream demand, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere and being in the off-season of consumption.

Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is showing a strong trend, with expectations of tight supply in the short term. However, due to demand constraints, the aggregated MDI market is expected to consolidate and operate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from November 29 to December 6, 2024. On November 29th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5800 yuan/ton, and on December 6th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5820 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% during the period. This week, the trend of the toluene market has slightly increased, and there has been an increase in demand for disproportionation and gasoline in Shandong region, supporting the price increase of local refineries. The crude oil trend has fluctuated upward this cycle, boosting the mentality of the spot market. Overall, the toluene market has slightly rebounded this week, and market sentiment is still positive.

Cost wise: As of December 5th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.30 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $72.09 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated widely, with little overall change. On the one hand, the geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the United States has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, OPEC+may extend its production reduction plan again at the December meeting, and it may be postponed until the second quarter of next year. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, weak demand in China, India, and other regions has led to continued concerns in the market about demand, which is bearish for the oil market. Overall, the adjustment of crude oil change rate during the cycle is not significant.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation is stable, and the company is currently operating normally. The production of the equipment is stable, and the products are mostly for personal use, with stable production and sales. As of December 5th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5800-5850 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On December 6th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current price of 7150 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally, with a price reduction of 150 yuan/ton compared to November 29th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of December 5th, the closing price of the Asian xylene market was 761-763 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 790-792 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton.

Market forecast: The recent crude oil market trend is volatile, with mixed negative and positive factors, and insufficient guidance for the toluene market. In terms of supply, there are devices about to be put into operation in the northern region, and the market expects a relatively loose supply in the future. The demand side still maintains essential support. Overall, it is expected that the market trend will be weak in the short term, and there may be some downward space.

The domestic fluorite price trend rose in November, with an average price of 3675 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 4.26% from the beginning price of 3525 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.17%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight availability of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite remains tight, and the inventory bottom of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season and the recovery of demand after the year, it has become the main factor for the firm fluorite price in November.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid market fluctuates, refrigerant market rises

Domestic major manufacturers raised the price of hydrofluoric acid in November, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10800-11500 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and more than 50% of hydrofluoric acid is in operation as a whole. However, manufacturers’ pricing slightly fell in December, limiting the rise of fluorite prices.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is on the rise, with continuous destocking of refrigerants throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stability and stabilizing prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and as the end of the month approaches, spot prices for enterprises continue to be tight. The circulation market is digesting inventory, and new purchase prices are based on factory quotes. The market for some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a rise in the fluorite market in November.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., with the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, the application of fluorite has received certain support, and the fluorite market still has support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, but the downstream hydrofluoric acid market has fallen slightly. Overall, the fluorite market price remained strong in December, with little change.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the isopropanol market first fell and then rose in November, and overall the price has increased. On November 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6670 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the average price was 6710 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.6% during the month.

In November, the isopropanol market first fell and then rose, indicating an overall increase in prices. The acetone market for raw materials fell in the first half of the year, with limited cost support. The trading atmosphere on the market is light, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, and all holders maintain stability in their trading ranges. The trading atmosphere in the mid market was weak, and the sentiment of holders offering discounts and selling increased, resulting in a decline in the price of isopropanol in the market. In the second half of the month, market prices first rose and then fell. The acetone market on the raw material side rose, and the ex factory prices of the main factories increased. Holders of goods had a good mentality, and on-site offers actively pushed up prices. At the end of the month, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and the market followed suit, resulting in a slight decline in prices. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6750-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Northeast China are around 6600-6700 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions around 6800 yuan/ton, and in South China region around 7150 yuan/ton.

In terms of import and export, according to customs statistics, the export volume of isopropanol in China in October 2024 was 22237412 kilograms, with an export value of 21434575 US dollars. From January to October 2024, the cumulative export volume of isopropanol in China was 83674280 kilograms, with a cumulative amount of 171066488 US dollars. According to customs statistics, the import volume of isopropanol in China in May 2024 was 3202398 kilograms, with an import amount of 5244861 US dollars. From January to October 2024, the cumulative import volume of isopropanol in China was 43668875 kilograms, with a cumulative amount of 65796726 US dollars.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market first rose and then fell in November, and the overall market price fell. On November 1st, the average price of acetone in China was 6017.5 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the average price was 5859 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 2.04% during the month. Overall, the sentiment of domestic acetone terminal factories entering the market for replenishment is average, and the overall trading atmosphere is lukewarm. Traders arrange shipments according to the market, and actual negotiations and follow-up limited transactions are average.

In terms of propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated within a certain range in November. At the beginning of November, the market average was 6785.75 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the average price was 6845.75 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.88%. In the short term, the inventory of propylene enterprises is still acceptable, overall controllable, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. It is expected that propylene will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

An isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that in November, the domestic raw material acetone price fell and the propylene range fluctuated, with average cost support. Downstream market demand is light, and there is a wait-and-see attitude in the market, with cautious actual transactions. It is expected that in the short term, isopropanol will remain cautious and the market will weaken, leading to consolidation behavior.