According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the polyester filament market first fell and then rose in December, with a slight correction in prices at the end of the month. On December 31st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6800-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8100-8500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7300-7500 yuan/ton, with a partial adjustment of the center of gravity.

At the beginning of the month, geopolitical conflicts escalated, leading to fluctuations in international oil prices and increased cost support. However, downstream demand is gradually weakening, which has a negative impact on the filament market. Market transactions tend to lean towards low prices, and the focus of negotiations is gradually shifting. In order to increase sales, the company has increased the discount on actual orders, further exacerbating the tight cash flow situation of the filament. The company’s desire to repair profits has become stronger, and the market focus has slightly rebounded.

In mid month, the European Union decided to impose new sanctions on Russian oil exports, and with the boost of Chinese policies, US oil prices broke through the $70 mark, making cost support more stable. Meanwhile, mainstream filament factories announced joint production cuts, further boosting market sentiment. Due to the low prices of filament, downstream manufacturers are making purchases one after another, resulting in a rapid decrease in market inventory and tight spot supply.

At the end of the month, the inventory pressure in the filament market has eased, and with the gradual implementation of production reduction and maintenance plans, the market supply is showing a positive trend. However, downstream users are mainly busy with finishing work, focusing on payment collection, and have a low willingness to purchase filament, resulting in a return to sluggish market transactions.

In terms of cost, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a fluctuating adjustment trend in December. As of December 27th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4767 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% from the beginning of the month. The raw material market first fell and then rebounded this month, but the decline was significant at the beginning of the month, resulting in a decrease in average costs compared to the previous month. The future geopolitical situation, China’s policies, and crude oil supply will have an impact on international crude oil prices, and there is a possibility of cost strengthening. However, the overall driving force of PTA supply and demand is limited, and industry players still have concerns. It is expected that the PTA market will mainly fluctuate weakly next month.

In terms of production and sales, filament enterprises will gradually implement year-end maintenance plans, and the market operating rate will further decrease. Downstream textile companies have limited capital recovery, making it difficult to carry out large-scale stocking. Some factories plan to shut down and take a holiday around New Year’s Day, and the weaving machine start-up rate will continue to decline, resulting in a bearish demand expectation.

Business analysts believe that overall, the polyester filament market will show a fluctuating trend. Due to the lack of favorable support for cost demand expectations, but with low inventory and continuous supply reduction, the company has a strong willingness to raise prices. Therefore, the market trend may continue the upward trend, but the price fluctuation is relatively small, expected to be between 50-100 yuan/ton.