According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from November 29 to December 6, 2024. On November 29th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5800 yuan/ton, and on December 6th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5820 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% during the period. This week, the trend of the toluene market has slightly increased, and there has been an increase in demand for disproportionation and gasoline in Shandong region, supporting the price increase of local refineries. The crude oil trend has fluctuated upward this cycle, boosting the mentality of the spot market. Overall, the toluene market has slightly rebounded this week, and market sentiment is still positive.

Cost wise: As of December 5th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.30 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $72.09 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated widely, with little overall change. On the one hand, the geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the United States has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, OPEC+may extend its production reduction plan again at the December meeting, and it may be postponed until the second quarter of next year. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, weak demand in China, India, and other regions has led to continued concerns in the market about demand, which is bearish for the oil market. Overall, the adjustment of crude oil change rate during the cycle is not significant.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation is stable, and the company is currently operating normally. The production of the equipment is stable, and the products are mostly for personal use, with stable production and sales. As of December 5th, East China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5800-5850 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On December 6th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current price of 7150 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally, with a price reduction of 150 yuan/ton compared to November 29th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of December 5th, the closing price of the Asian xylene market was 761-763 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 790-792 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton.

Market forecast: The recent crude oil market trend is volatile, with mixed negative and positive factors, and insufficient guidance for the toluene market. In terms of supply, there are devices about to be put into operation in the northern region, and the market expects a relatively loose supply in the future. The demand side still maintains essential support. Overall, it is expected that the market trend will be weak in the short term, and there may be some downward space.