Trend survey of ethylene glycol

Through market investigation, domestic glycol market has been surging and falling this week in case of large domestic supply pressure in the long term of main port going to the warehouse and strong and weak in the near future. According to the survey of participants in upstream, middle and lower reaches, although the far end pressure is relatively high, the diving market needs to be digested this week. About 43.33% of market participants hold neutral views on the market; domestic production is gradually reflected, some orders are cancelled, pressure on polyester end is gradually reflected, and demand deterioration is expected to be strong, with 36.67% of market participants pessimistic attitude towards the market; next week, they arrive in Hong Kong Less, the recent warehouse going will continue, and about 20% of market participants in the short term are optimistic about the market.

Commencement rate;

1、 Today, the ethylene glycol industry started: 60.24% (up 0.05%); non coal load 62.45% (stable); coal production 56.17% (up 0.13%); 2. The domestic polyester industry today has a stable starting rate of 87.74% (production base of 64.2 million tons / year); and the starting rate of downstream weaving industry is 82.44%.

Market overview;

The general election in the United States is basically settled, commodity market mentality has been restored. Today, the overall trend of glycol market is ahead of the trend. The overall price is slightly higher than the previous exchange. In terms of daily transaction, spot transactions are 3655-3680, and the base margin shrinks to around 30; the spot base difference is 20 next week, and the transaction is 3670-3680; the contract negotiation of the US dollar market is mainly based on the recent negotiations on ship and goods, which is 470-474 USD / ton.

Supply analysis;

Terminal inventory: as of Monday, the total inventory of MEG port in East China main port area was 1094400 tons, a decrease of 156 tons compared with last Monday, and a decrease of 56000 tons compared with last Thursday.

In detail, there are 654000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 162000 tons in Taicang, 110000 tons in Ningbo, 105000 tons in Jiangyin and Changzhou, 63400 tons in Shanghai and Changshu. (11.5-11.8) the delivery of the wharf this week: Zhangjiagang delivers 7700-7750 tons per day; the comprehensive daily average delivery of 4800-4850 tons of Taicang and the total daily average delivery of Ningbo main port is around 5500 tons.

Device dynamics:

Unit aspect: a new unit of 600000 tons in Xinjiang is gradually increased at present; the production of superior products has been produced by PetroChina refining and chemical engineering, and the operating load is gradually increased; Rongxin chemical has a parking and maintenance plan in this month, which is expected to last for 20 days; and the construction of Shanxi Wao can be steadily increased.

Demand analysis:

At present, there is no new contradiction in the basic surface of ethylene glycol market. Short-term use of macro warming to drive price or repair with shock, but the new release of the supply end is not reduced, the flow of wharf to warehouse is hindered, and the supply and demand margin lacks new improvement points. In the later stage, it is difficult to form a sustained rebound trend.

Trade name: octanol

Latest price (November 9): 7483.33 yuan / ton

The factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose on November 9, 116.66 yuan / ton, or 1.58% higher than that on November 6. The upstream propylene market hit the bottom and rebounded, the cost support was good, and the downstream DOP market rose sharply, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was good, and the octanol supply was normal.

Recently, the factory price of octanol in Shandong Province has fluctuated slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 7500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on November 2 was 563 yuan / ton, and that on November 6 was 568 yuan / ton. The price rose by 0.89% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate rose slightly this week. Coking grade ammonium sulfate narrow adjustment, internal grade ammonium sulfate inventory is relatively tight. The mainstream ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Henan Province is 520-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 500-540 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 550-570 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Province is 450-490 yuan, and that of Northeast China is 520-630 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches rose. Due to the rising price of compound fertilizer raw materials and good cost support, compound fertilizer market began to rise steadily. At present, the market atmosphere is good.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate rose slightly, domestic demand is stable, supply of goods is sufficient. The demand of ammonium sulfate in our company is limited. It is expected that the coking grade ammonium sulfate will increase steadily in the short term, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate will be stable in the finishing operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic LNG rose by 9.28% in September, and then rose again after the holiday. In the traditional peak season, the price continued to rise under the boost of demand. On October 30, the average price of domestic LNG was 3766.67 yuan / ton, up 43.22% compared with the beginning of the month and 14.12% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

October entered the peak season of the traditional market, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, the trading center shifted upward, the liquid price continued to rise throughout the month, and the prices of many places increased by more than 1000 yuan. At the beginning of the month, after the end of the double festival holiday, road transportation resumed to be unobstructed, downstream began to actively replenish, terminal demand increased, and LNG prices continued to rise. In the middle of the month, the northern cities entered the winter heating period, and the regional urban fuel and make-up depots were positive and the market mentality was optimistic. In addition, the price of raw gas was increased twice this month, which supported the continuous upward trend of LNG price. At the end of the month, the growth of domestic LNG market slowed down, and trading in some regions was slightly tired, such as Shanxi, Henan and other places’ quotation slightly callback. On October 30, PetroChina Western Branch’s raw material natural gas auction, the transaction price was about 1.68-1.7 yuan / m3, which was still expected. The industry had a strong wait-and-see mood. The liquid plant adjusted the price according to the shipment situation, but the overall market situation was still upward.

The temperature dropped sharply this month, and the domestic LNG market will rise every winter. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will rise every winter. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Northeast China and other regions are heating ahead of time. Urban fuel and replenishment are active. At the same time, the coal demand increases, the vehicle demand continues to improve, and the gas station sales volume significantly improves, and the overall market demand increases significantly. This month, Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy, Xinjiang Qinghua, etc. have planned maintenance enterprises. The operating rate has declined. In addition, Huanggang in Hubei Province and Rudong in Jiangsu Province have limited shipment. The supply in some areas is tight and the basic preference is strong, which supports the price strongly.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 30, the average price in Inner Mongolia was around 3790 yuan / ton, and the price was rising; in Shaanxi, the average price was around 3850 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Shanxi, the average price was around 3900 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Xinjiang, the average price was around 4250 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Ningxia, the average price was around 3920 yuan / ton, the price was rising, and the average price in Sichuan was 3820 yuan Around yuan / ton, the price rose; in October, prices rose sharply.

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from October 30 to September 30

Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 3790 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton: 1210 yuan

Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 3790 yuan / ton 2660 yuan / ton 1130 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day — 2580 yuan / ton–

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 3830 yuan / ton 2650 yuan / ton 1180 yuan

Shengdazizhou: 1 million cubic meters / day, 3820 yuan / ton, 2720 yuan / ton, 1100 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 3630 yuan / ton: 2580 yuan / ton: 1050 yuan

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 3980 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton 1280 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 3830 yuan / ton 2650 yuan / ton 1180 yuan

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 3930 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 1530 yuan

Most downstream products showed an upward trend

The transaction price of methanol in Lubei market of Shandong Province is generally stable at 1720-1730 yuan / ton, and the transaction is general and stable temporarily. The methanol market in southern Shandong Province fell by 10-20 yuan / ton to 1820-1840 yuan / ton in spot exchange. Linyi received the local price of 1800-1820 yuan / ton and delivered it without tax. The transaction was improved. The quotation of logistics goods was 1770-1780 yuan / ton, and the transaction was general. The overall receiving of goods in the downstream is quite cautious. The methanol market in central Shandong is stable to 1900 yuan / ton, while the transaction of peripheral goods is stable to 1710-1730 yuan / ton. The transaction is weak, and most contracts are executed.

Urea, in late October, the market price of urea in Shandong area may rise slightly. According to urea analysts of the business agency, the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise mainly. Next, it is necessary to wait for the final supply volume of India’s bidding.

Dichloromethane: at present, domestic dichloromethane is affected by the high price of raw materials, and the production cost is high. However, the purchasing intention of downstream market is flat, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards dichloromethane. Therefore, some enterprises reduce the negative pressure and reduce the pressure. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will remain stable in a short time.

Ethylene, current crude oil: the two sides of the Libya conflict signed a cease-fire agreement in Geneva on the same day. The market was more worried about crude oil demand, and the decline of crude oil could not form a support for the ethylene market. Therefore, data analysts of business agency expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall below.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts of the business agency believe that: the market atmosphere is good in October, and the prices continue to push up strongly and forcefully. However, with the rising prices and the start-up of maintenance enterprises in the early stage, the supply is increasing, and the mentality of the downstream is a little tired, and the atmosphere of local transactions is weakening, and the rising trend is slowing down, and there are some callback phenomena. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise strongly and effectively in the short term In the past, the trend was upward, but the range was limited.

On the 29th, the domestic epoxy resin market continued to rise, but the change of raw material end was not obvious, and the change of cost side was limited. Therefore, it can be seen that the profits of epoxy resin factories are quite high. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the ex factory price of liquid epoxy resin is around 21000 yuan / ton this week, while the market monitoring data shows that the ex factory price of bottled epoxy resin has exceeded 21100 yuan / ton, and the reference price of solid epoxy resin is 16700-17000 yuan / ton. At present, Changchun chemical company offers 21000 yuan / ton, Jinan Tianmao and Baling Petrochemical Company offer 20500 yuan / ton, mainly order production, Nantong Xingchen offer 20800 yuan / ton, Yangnong offer 21300 yuan / ton, and East China market, the market offer 21200 yuan / ton barrel, and recently due to the limited supply of goods, offers reduced, but the market situation continues to rise.

In terms of cost, bisphenol a market, one of the raw materials, remained at a high level, with an offer of 12400-12600 yuan / T. Entering the October, the market of bisphenol A first increased and then stabilized and then narrowed down. The market situation is not optimistic near the end of the month. The domestic bisphenol A market is difficult to guarantee prices, and the market offers more loose. The price of the holding company is always frequent. The reference is about 12500 yuan / ton, and the turnover is scanty. At present, the factory concentration is adjusted to 13000 yuan / ton. The reference offer range of domestic market is 12500 yuan / ton, and some markets have lower prices.

Another important raw material epichlorohydrin market is narrow and weak, adjustment and operation, the overall atmosphere in the field is weak, and the downstream just needs to replenish goods into the market. Although the delivery of goods by the holders is not smooth, but under the cost control, the intention of low price is not high, and there is no lack of possibility of supporting the price.

In terms of devices, Changchun Chemical’s 150000 T / A, Nantong Xingchen 160000 T / A, Baling Petrochemical 70000 T / A and Jinan Tianmao units are in normal operation, and 80% of Yangnong Jinhu 170000 T / a plants are mainly supplied to contract users; among the 200000 t / a devices of Hongchang electronics, Guangzhou device is shut down, and 80% of Zhuhai plant is in operation, and some plants are mainly for orders or stable supply contracts The supply of goods in circulation in the market decreased, and the offer of new single increased again. /p>

From the perspective of business associations, with the rapid rebound of prices to a high level, downstream terminals just need to follow up on high prices and adopt the mode of on demand purchase. At present, the raw material end has been reduced in a weak way. It is expected that the epoxy resin market will run at a high level in the short term under the tight supply of goods. The upstream and downstream situation will be closely watched, and the short-term liquid epoxy resin will run at 21200 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton for 50% powder and 2650 yuan / ton for 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder. Overall, the market remained stable. With the increase of autumn fertilizer market demand, the inventory pressure is small. Spot supply overall stable, in the cost price continued to rise, the overall price is at a high level. At present, the price of potassium sulfate in water salt system is tight, and the supply of goods in Qinghai Province is in short supply. Luo potassium has already exceeded the annual sales plan. Currently, it is mainly to ship Southern tobacco bills. Since October 22, 2020, the selling price of ROC potassium sulfate products of SDIC will be increased by 100 yuan / ton.

From January to September, China’s total export volume of potassium sulfate was 291000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, or about 4%, compared with 279000 tons in the same period last year. According to statistics, at present, the effective production capacity of domestic potassium sulfate is nearly 7 million tons, and the new production capacity under construction and planned is at least 1 million tons, while the domestic consumption is only about 4 million tons. Compared with this, the export volume is just a comfort.

The domestic market price of potassium chloride showed a slight upward trend. In terms of domestic potassium, Salt Lake plants are in normal production, while in terms of 60% powder and imported potassium, the prices of some products have increased. The downstream demand remained stable and many winter storage sites were opened, but the progress was slow and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analysts of the business club believe that: Although the downstream demand has recovered, but there is a lot of wait-and-see mentality, and the procurement is not active enough, and the potassium sulfate market basically remains stable in the short term,.

As of October 28, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2636 yuan / ton, up 1.15% compared with the same period last week and 3.26% higher than that at the beginning of this month. At present, there are 2550-2680 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2600-2680 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2720-2820 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2450-2500 yuan / ton in Henan, 2600 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2150 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50.1500

Yangtze BP 50 1300

Jiangsu Sopu 120.3000

Celanese 1200 2500

Jiantao, Hebei Province

Tianjin Bohua 35 500

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.1300

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1300

Domestic acetic acid market spot supply continues to be tight, acetic acid price high upward, market start stable, industry inventory low. With the enterprises successively deliver export orders and the increase of downstream domestic demand, the supply tension in the industry is intensified, and the acetic acid production enterprises have good intention to stand out.

The methanol market is running at a high level, and the market inventory is low. Downstream enterprises and traders are active in purchasing, and the methanol market is stable in a short period of time. At present, it is about 1917 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, the inventory of acetic acid downstream markets such as vinyl acetate and acetate is gradually reduced, the demand in the terminal market is good, and the spot supply in the market is limited. It is expected that the stock market will still be strong in the short term.

Recently, the supply of acetic acid in the international market is tight, and the price of acetic acid in various regions is running steadily. At present, the acetic acid Market in Asia is about 330-380 US dollars / ton; the European market is about 560 euro / ton; and the North American market is about 520 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the domestic acetic acid market starts stably, there will be no big fluctuation in a short time, the purchase of downstream demand side is stable and rising, and the inventory in the industry is low. It is expected that the acetic acid market will still run stably in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly. The quoted price rose from 1706.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1743.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 36.66 yuan / ton or 2.15%, and 1.13% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and the urea commodity index on October 23 was 81.09.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1740 yuan / ton, which was increased by 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1750 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was increased by 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1740 yuan / ton this weekend, 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand is fair, the agricultural demand in the northern region has followed up, and the industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. On the supply side, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, resulting in local spot shortage.

From the international level, the final confirmed quantity of RCF urea in India is 2184000 tons, and the final supply quantity of China is still to be confirmed.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain: the overall rise of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose, with the price of liquefied natural gas rising from 2990.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3223.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 7.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.12% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, with the quoted price of 3200.00 yuan / ton, up 1.59% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, rising by 1.20% from 5566.67 at the beginning of the week to 5633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week urea cost support is strong.

3、 Future forecast

In late October, the market of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly. According to urea analysts of the business agency, the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise mainly. Next, it is necessary to wait for the final supply volume of India’s bidding.

Although the price adjustment of domestic oil products ushered in an upward adjustment, the increase was limited, and the international crude oil price fell, and the domestic oil product market price fell slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of gasoline on October 23 was 5220 yuan / ton, down 1.64% from the beginning of the week; on October 23, the price of diesel oil was 4573 yuan / ton, down 2.00% from the beginning of the week.

As of October 16, Cushing’s crude oil inventory increased by 975000 barrels in the week; the implementation rate of OPEC member states’ production reduction in September was as high as 102%, but the oil market was dragged down by the second epidemic in Europe, and crude oil demand continued to decline; the international crude oil price fell this week, WTI crude oil price fell by 3.09%, Brent crude oil price fell by 2.00%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the domestic weather and temperature are falling, and there are no holidays in the near future. The domestic gasoline market demand returns to the rigid demand, which lacks a positive boost. In addition, the international crude oil falls, and the terminal market just needs to replenish. In terms of diesel demand, the domestic weather is getting colder, and outdoor operations such as road engineering and infrastructure construction enter the rush period, so the demand for diesel is good. On the whole, diesel demand is better than gasoline market demand. Affected by the drop in crude oil prices, domestic diesel prices fell slightly this week.

On October 23, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 73%. Although the start-up load of the refinery decreased slightly, it still maintained a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was relatively sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes: in the short term, international crude oil will still be suppressed by demand, the supply side will not be good, and the domestic demand for refined oil will not be supported by favorable factors. It is expected that the price of domestic oil products will continue to decline steadily.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 23, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6566.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on October 19, the average price decreased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.50%; compared with the price on October 1, the average price increased by 400 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.49%; and the maximum amplitude from October 1 to October 22 was 8.11%.

Domestic butanone market fell slightly this week

Since the beginning of this week, the overall domestic butanone market has been running steadily at a high level. The overall inventory of domestic factories is generally general, and there are not many new orders in the market. The previous orders have been successively executed. The confidence of the industry is still good, and the butanone market is running smoothly. Until the 22nd, the domestic butanone market showed a slight negative decline, and the butanone market in North China was weak and fell. The reference of butanone ex factory price was 6400-6600 yuan / ton, while that of East China was loose and downward. The ex factory price reference of butanone was 6400-6500 yuan / ton. The market of butanone in South China was temporarily stable, with the ex factory price of butanone at 6600-6700 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of October 23, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6566.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on October 19, the weekly average price of butanone decreased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.50%.

On the upstream side, on October 21, the domestic LPG market in Shandong was mainly stable, with some rising slightly. At present, the mainstream transaction price was maintained at around 3050-3100 yuan / ton, and the market trading atmosphere was good. Lower reaches of the market enthusiasm is good, manufacturers shipping smoothly.

In terms of crude oil, on October 22, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.64/barrel, up $0.61. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 42.46 US dollars / barrel, up 0.73 US dollars. International oil prices rose on Thursday, boosted by the U.S. fiscal stimulus plan, but at the same time, concerns about slowing fuel demand triggered by the epidemic limited the rise in oil prices, which failed to recover the decline of the previous trading day.

Few new orders, more attention to inventory

The short-term operation of butanone is expected to be low