1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly. The quoted price rose from 1706.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1743.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 36.66 yuan / ton or 2.15%, and 1.13% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and the urea commodity index on October 23 was 81.09.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1740 yuan / ton, which was increased by 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1750 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was increased by 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1740 yuan / ton this weekend, 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand is fair, the agricultural demand in the northern region has followed up, and the industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. On the supply side, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, resulting in local spot shortage.

From the international level, the final confirmed quantity of RCF urea in India is 2184000 tons, and the final supply quantity of China is still to be confirmed.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain: the overall rise of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose, with the price of liquefied natural gas rising from 2990.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3223.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 7.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.12% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, with the quoted price of 3200.00 yuan / ton, up 1.59% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, rising by 1.20% from 5566.67 at the beginning of the week to 5633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week urea cost support is strong.

3、 Future forecast

In late October, the market of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly. According to urea analysts of the business agency, the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise mainly. Next, it is necessary to wait for the final supply volume of India’s bidding.