1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, the average market price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 10510 yuan/ton on October 17, and 10390 yuan/ton on October 21. This week, the price of domestic industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid fell 1.14%.

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, the average market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 9800 yuan/ton on October 17, and 9700 yuan/ton on October 21. The domestic price of wet process phosphoric acid fell 1.02% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid market fluctuated and fell this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is stable and the cost support is average. At present, there is no good news on the market, manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously, and the industry is in a strong wait-and-see mood. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with stable delivery and investment. As of October 21, the average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in the domestic market was about 10390 yuan/ton, and the average price of 85% wet phosphoric acid in the domestic market was about 9700 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is 9950-11000 yuan/ton, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 10800 yuan/ton, and the market quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 10000 yuan/ton. The market quotation of 85 content WPA in Hubei is about 9400 yuan/ton, and that in Nanjing is about 10000 yuan/ton.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. This week, the phosphorus ore market was in a stable and consolidated operation as a whole. In special periods, logistics was limited, some mining enterprises stopped production, and the information on the site was relatively calm. Although the downstream phosphate fertilizer market continues to be weak and the demand side is generally supported, the overall offer of phosphate rock mining enterprises is mainly stable due to the tight supply.

Raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was mainly wait-and-see, and the actual market transaction price declined. At present, the market of yellow phosphorus is relatively light, and the enthusiasm for taking goods in the downstream is not high. In addition, transportation in some regions is limited. Most yellow phosphorus enterprises offer firm prices, and now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, but only discuss them. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s quotation is basically unchanged.

3、 Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believe that the raw material yellow phosphorus market has been consolidated this week, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the phosphoric acid market has increased. Downstream purchase on demand, with limited release of terminal demand. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes in the raw material market.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, toluene rose after the festival and fell back. On September 30, the price was 7630 yuan/ton, and on Friday (October 14), it was 7790 yuan/ton, up 2.1% compared with that before the festival; 18.75% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Supported by the strong rise of crude oil, related bulk commodities generally rose, and the domestic toluene market actively supported prices. However, the downstream actual demand was weak, the terminal gasoline continued to fall, the crude oil fell broadly after the festival, the negative atmosphere was suppressed, and the mentality of the industry turned negative.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia rose in a volatile way this week. On Thursday (October 13), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $979/ton, up $13/ton year-on-year, or 1.35%.

In terms of crude oil, due to OPEC+’s plan to significantly reduce production from November, oil prices continued to rise during the holiday season. As of October 7, Brent prices rose by 9.96 dollars/barrel, or 11.32%; WTI rose by 13.15 dollars/barrel, or 16.54%. However, the market’s concern about economic recession still depressed the oil price, which mainly fell after the festival. As of October 14, Brent price fell by 6.29 dollars/barrel, or 6.42%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 7.03 USD/barrel, or 7.59%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China soared. On September 30, the price was 20075 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 24367 yuan/ton, 21.38% higher than before the festival, and 73.84% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of PX, domestic PX prices rose. On September 30, the price was 9000 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than before the festival, and 27.4% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market is weak, and the price has been weakening continuously. On September 30, the price was 8693 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 8420 yuan/ton, down 3.14% from before the festival, and up 1.32% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market will continue the long short game. Positive, OPEC+production reduction, European winter energy supply shortage. Bad news: European and American interest rate hikes are expected, and the market is worried about the economic recession depressing oil demand. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, OPEC+’s decision on crude oil production, the impact of the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

At present, the demand side of toluene is weak, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the price is weak. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

According to the data from the business society, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride continued to decline this week. As of October 16, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7950.00 yuan/ton, down 1.73% from the price of 8090.00 yuan/ton on October 10, and down 8.20% from the same period last month.

On October 16, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 74.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 (2021-12-15), and up 46.33% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Most domestic benzol maleic anhydride markets were shut down this week. This week, the downstream of maleic anhydride is ready for shipment after the festival. The factory has no shipment pressure for the time being, and the resin is mainly purchased on demand. As of the 16th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7400 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu was about 7400 yuan/ton, that in Shanxi was about 9500 yuan/ton, that in Hebei was about 8000 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream, after the festival, pure benzene rose continuously and fell back rapidly. On September 30, the average price of pure benzene was 7917 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the average price was 8092 yuan/ton, up 2.21% compared with that before the festival. This week, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose first and then fell, rising overall. Last weekend, it was 7900 yuan/ton, and this weekend, it was 8033.33 yuan/ton, up 1.69%. As for n-butane, as of October 16, the price in Shandong was 5280 yuan/ton.

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of the Business Club, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market is suffering from serious losses at present, the factory is shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation supply is less; This week, the downstream of maleic anhydride is ready for shipment after the festival. The factory has no shipping pressure for the time being. The resin is mainly purchased on demand, and the price of maleic anhydride is mainly sorted out. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to consolidate in the near future.

With both supply and demand driven, the price of silicon metal has risen steadily. As of October 17, according to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 21690 yuan/ton, up 2.02% from last week.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 17th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port is 21600-21800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port is 21600-21800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming is 21300-21500 yuan/ton, with an average of 21400 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan is 21300-21400 yuan/ton, 21350 yuan/ton on average; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai is 22200-22400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22300 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Price Fluctuation of Silicon Metal

Supply side: The supply continues to be disturbed, and production in Sichuan continues to recover, but the production of silicon metal enterprises in Yunnan is limited, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell at a high price. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang is repeated and the transportation of raw materials is blocked. It is understood that the total number of silicon metal furnaces is 688 at present. As of October 13, the opening rate of silicon metal furnaces is about 50%. The number of silicon metal furnaces in Xinjiang is 113, Sichuan is 66, and Yunnan is 83.

Demand side: the price of aluminum alloy is stable, and the mainstream quotation is 18700 yuan/ton; The price of silicone DMC fell, and the mainstream quotation was 17580 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy and organic silicon is weakening. It is understood that at present, the organic silicon industry is upside down at nearly 8 points, and some monomer devices will have a reduced maintenance plan. Aluminum alloy enterprises also expect to reduce production due to weak downstream consumption.

The mainstream price of polysilicon is 297666.66 yuan/ton, and the price is stable, continuing the level before the festival. From the perspective of silicon material commencement, the operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers has significantly increased this month. Two units in the maintenance period have been restored successively in September. However, under the influence of the epidemic in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, although the unit production has not been affected, due to the impact of transportation, the delivery may be delayed, and the supply has little impact.

Future market forecast

On the whole, the reason for the short-term rise of metal silicon is that the demand for polysilicon remains prosperous, the supply side is limited and the epidemic situation is disturbed. However, the demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy remains weak, which limits the space for metal silicon price to rise. At the same time, the improvement of production in Sichuan will to some extent offset the decline in Yunnan’s supply, and it is difficult for silicon price to rise again. It is expected that it will operate stably, moderately and weakly in the short term.

Aluminum price slightly recovered

According to the data from the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on October 14 was 18726.67 yuan/ton, up 1.01% daily, 2.02% higher than the average market price of 18356.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (10.1), 17450 yuan/ton higher than the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022), and 7.32% higher than the recent recovery.

According to the year-on-year data, the average market price in the same period last year was 23230 yuan/ton, down 19.36%. At the peak price of 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24240 yuan/ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value fell by 22.74%.

Short term market dominated by news

The aluminum price rose on the 14th, mainly because the market news that RUSAL would be subject to sanctions disturbed the aluminum price. On the 14th, it was reported that Alcoa had asked the London Metal Exchange to delist Russian aluminum from the market. In addition, on the 13th, the United States was considering banning the import of Russian aluminum as a response to the recent escalation of the situation. The price of Lunan Aluminum rose, and Shanghai Aluminum was also boosted. The linkage between futures and cash drives spot aluminum prices up. It is reported that the annual capacity of RUSAL is about 4.5 million tons, accounting for about 6% of the total capacity of global electrolytic aluminum. In the first half of 2022, the United States will import 3210000 tons of aluminum products, including 126000 tons of aluminum products (including metals, alloys, crude metals, plates and bars, etc.) from Russia, accounting for 3.93% of the total imports.

The recent rebound in aluminum prices is still at the stage of news disturbance. Only when there are a large number of supply and demand gaps in the global aluminum market can a sustained rebound trend be formed. At present, supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is expected that the trend will remain volatile in the short term.

In October, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to rise as a whole. After the National Day holiday, the Henan market rose strongly, and the factory quotation continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4230 yuan/ton on October 7 and 4630 yuan/ton on October 13, with a post holiday increase of 9.46%, up 22.97% compared with August 1.

As of October 13, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4600 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4910 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4490-4630 yuan/ton

With the arrival of the “Silver Decade”, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to rise, with prices continuing to rise. Most prices in Henan market operated smoothly during the National Day holiday, and the main increase came from the end of the National Day holiday. Since October 8, the domestic dimethyl ether market has risen significantly. The factory price of Henan dimethyl ether has been reported continuously high, and the focus has moved up widely.

First, on the cost side, the raw material methanol market started to surge higher on September 1, bringing obvious benefits to the dimethyl ether market. Until October 9, the methanol market gave up the increase and the price fell, but the early good still remained. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2528 yuan/ton on September 1, 2850 yuan/ton on October 13, and the price rose by 12.74% during the period.

The second is the supply side. In the domestic dimethyl ether market, many sets of devices, such as Hebi BMW and Qinyang Shengxin, are parked. The market supply is low, and most manufacturers have no pressure on inventory.

The last is the demand side. With the end of the National Day Holiday, the logistics will resume after the holiday, and the downstream inventory and replenishment demand will be good. The enthusiasm for entering the market is good, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively mild. The market is obviously favorable. The dimethyl ether market has a strong driving force, and the markets in Hebei and Jiangxi are also significantly higher.

Future market forecast: the raw material methanol market began to decline in a weak way on October 9, bringing some containment on the cost side. On the supply side, the manufacturer’s inventory is still under control, and the mentality is relatively strong. On the demand side, the downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is good. To sum up, although the supply and demand are still good, the price of dimethyl ether has risen to a relatively high level, and the raw material methanol is weak. The dimethyl ether market has insufficient momentum for continued growth, which may be stable in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 12, 2022, the reference of the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 9400 yuan/ton. Compared with the price on September 30 (the reference price of butanone was 9900 yuan/ton), the average price decreased by 500 yuan/ton, or 5.05%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the National Day holiday in October, the domestic butanone market overall showed a weak downward trend. Back after the festival, driven by the continuous rise of international crude oil prices, the butanone industry has a good attitude after the festival, and some of them are not willing to give up. However, due to the general demand for butanone before the festival and the sales pressure of some factories and operators after the festival, the market price generally declined in a narrow range after the festival. In addition, the downstream demand is cautious after the festival, and the demand side also restricts the butanone market. Therefore, the overall butanone market is weak after the festival. As of October 12, there was a large difference between high and low prices in domestic butanone market. The market price was around 9000-9800 yuan/ton. Compared with that before the festival, the price decreased by 400-600 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, after the festival, the domestic market of liquefied gas for civil use in Shandong Province showed an overall upward trend. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of liquefied gas was 5604.00 on October 11, up 2.71% compared with October 1 (5456.00).

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the downstream demand of butanone is average, and the supply and demand transmission is relatively slow. Although the raw material side has given butanone some cost support, it has not improved the current environment in the butanone market, and the overall trading and investment atmosphere in the market is relatively flat. Butanone data experts from the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly adjust its weak range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

DOP price wave adjustment in September

According to the data monitoring of the business community, affected by the off-season, the low DOP price in the third quarter was adjusted by shocks. With the arrival of the golden nine and silver ten, the DOP price should have changed its declining trend and reached a new high. However, the spot transaction remained sluggish, and the rise of DOP was weak. As of September 29, the DOP price was 10080 yuan/ton, up 0.30%% from 10050 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. In September, the DOP price wave was adjusted, and the DOP market rose weakly. As a whole, the DOP price stabilized in September.

The price of isooctanol fell slightly in September

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol dropped in September. As of September 29, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan/ton, down 2.92% from 9133.33 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol fell, the cost of DOP fell, and the positive support of DOP weakened.

The price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising in September

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising in September. As of September 29, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10300 yuan/ton, up 18.05% from 8725 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. Due to the double impact of the soaring price of raw materials and the increasing maintenance of phthalic anhydride enterprises, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is tight, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly. However, since the late ten days, the price of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, the cost of DOP raw materials in the future market has stabilized, and the impetus for DOP to rise has weakened.

Domestic PVC output

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2022, the output of primary morphoplastic decreased by 2.6% year on year; From January to August, the output of primary form plastics totaled 73.78 million tons, up 0.6% year on year; In August, the output of plastic products was 6.441 million tons, down 6.9% year on year. From January to August, the output of plastic products was 5054.7 tons, down 4.9%. The output of PVC products in the downstream declined, the demand for plasticizers declined, the demand for DOP was insufficient, and the downward pressure on DOP was large.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply in terms of raw materials. Although the price of isooctanol fell slightly, the overall price stabilized, the cost of DOP rose, and the impetus for DOP to rise increased; However, in late September, the price of phthalic anhydride became stable, the price of isooctanol fell slightly, the cost of DOP became stable, and the upward momentum of DOP weakened. In terms of demand, the output of PVC products declined from January to August, the demand for plasticizers was insufficient, and the downward pressure on DOP was great. The central banks of the United States and the seven European and African countries raised interest rates, and a series of radical policies intensified the market’s concern about the global economic outlook. PVC demand in September was lower than expected. The peak season is not strong, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak. In the future, the DOP cost tends to be stable and the demand is weak. It is expected that the DOP price will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the mixed xylene started to weaken from the first ten days of the month to the middle of the month after rising. The price of mixed xylene was 8090 yuan/ton on September 1 and 8050 yuan/ton on September 28, down 0.49% from the beginning of the month and up 37.61% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Supported by the peak demand season of “Jinjiu”, the mixed xylene rose at the beginning of the month. Around the Mid Autumn Festival, many places were affected by the epidemic, and the automobile transportation was limited. The gasoline market fell back, but the price of mixed xylene was relatively firm due to the tight supply. The price of mixed xylene began to weaken in the middle of the year, as the decline of crude oil expanded and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers was poor before the National Day holiday.

In terms of crude oil, in September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

In terms of external market, the price of Asian mixed xylene in external market fell this month. On September 28, South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $972.5 per ton, a month on month drop of US $20 per ton, or 2.02%.

In terms of the PX market, the domestic PX price rose steadily in the middle of the month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8800 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9000 yuan/ton. The price was 2.27% higher than the beginning of the month, and 26.76% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of OX market, the price of OX in East China rose widely this month, at the beginning of the month at 8300 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month at 9000 yuan/ton, 8.43% higher than the beginning of the month, and 38.46% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market in Shandong Province weakened this month, and the price fell in shock. The price at the beginning of the month was 9454 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8720 yuan/ton, 7.77% lower than the beginning of the month, and 12.2% higher than the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the expectation of supply tightening continues to play a game with economic and demand worries, and the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Due to the tight supply, the price of mixed xylene was relatively firm throughout September. However, the demand for downstream chemical products continues to be weak, and the demand for gasoline blending is expected to gradually decline in October. In the future, the pressure of mixed xylene demand is highlighted, and the price is likely to weaken. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this month was 10550 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the end of this month was 10466 yuan/ton, down 0.79%, down 4.85% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

At present, PS (polystyrene) trading is cold, and the enthusiasm of merchants to offer is obviously weakened. Quotation reference of mainstream brands: Dushanzi 500, 10100-10200 yuan/ton; CITIC 525 is out of stock, Saibaolong 525 is reported as 10000 yuan/ton for factory delivery, Liwan 525 is reported as 9950-10000 yuan/ton for bulk cargo, Shanghai SECCO 123P is reported as 10400-10500 yuan/ton, Zhenjiang Qimei PG33 is reported as 11500 yuan/ton, and Yangba 158K is reported as 11500-11700 yuan/ton for lack of cargo; Huajin 825 reported 10700-10750 yuan/ton; Ningbo Taihua 535N quoted 11400 yuan/ton. The above prices are tax inclusive and are subject to firm negotiation.

At present, styrene is weak and volatile, petrochemical manufacturers maintain stability, and market trading slows down near the National Day holiday. Businesses are not enthusiastic about trading, so they mainly wait and see. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) market will fluctuate in a narrow range. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market will be 9800-11500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) will be 10400-11700 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

At present, PS downstream trading and investment are slowing down, and the market lacks support from good news. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) market will rise or fall in a narrow range.