1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the mixed xylene started to weaken from the first ten days of the month to the middle of the month after rising. The price of mixed xylene was 8090 yuan/ton on September 1 and 8050 yuan/ton on September 28, down 0.49% from the beginning of the month and up 37.61% from the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and review

 

Supported by the peak demand season of “Jinjiu”, the mixed xylene rose at the beginning of the month. Around the Mid Autumn Festival, many places were affected by the epidemic, and the automobile transportation was limited. The gasoline market fell back, but the price of mixed xylene was relatively firm due to the tight supply. The price of mixed xylene began to weaken in the middle of the year, as the decline of crude oil expanded and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers was poor before the National Day holiday.

 

In terms of crude oil, in September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

 

PVA

In terms of external market, the price of Asian mixed xylene in external market fell this month. On September 28, South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $972.5 per ton, a month on month drop of US $20 per ton, or 2.02%.

 

In terms of the PX market, the domestic PX price rose steadily in the middle of the month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8800 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9000 yuan/ton. The price was 2.27% higher than the beginning of the month, and 26.76% higher than the same period last year.

 

In terms of OX market, the price of OX in East China rose widely this month, at the beginning of the month at 8300 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month at 9000 yuan/ton, 8.43% higher than the beginning of the month, and 38.46% higher than the same period last year.

 

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market in Shandong Province weakened this month, and the price fell in shock. The price at the beginning of the month was 9454 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8720 yuan/ton, 7.77% lower than the beginning of the month, and 12.2% higher than the same period last year.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

On the cost side (crude oil), the expectation of supply tightening continues to play a game with economic and demand worries, and the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

 

Due to the tight supply, the price of mixed xylene was relatively firm throughout September. However, the demand for downstream chemical products continues to be weak, and the demand for gasoline blending is expected to gradually decline in October. In the future, the pressure of mixed xylene demand is highlighted, and the price is likely to weaken. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.

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