1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, toluene rose after the festival and fell back. On September 30, the price was 7630 yuan/ton, and on Friday (October 14), it was 7790 yuan/ton, up 2.1% compared with that before the festival; 18.75% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
Supported by the strong rise of crude oil, related bulk commodities generally rose, and the domestic toluene market actively supported prices. However, the downstream actual demand was weak, the terminal gasoline continued to fall, the crude oil fell broadly after the festival, the negative atmosphere was suppressed, and the mentality of the industry turned negative.
In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia rose in a volatile way this week. On Thursday (October 13), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $979/ton, up $13/ton year-on-year, or 1.35%.
In terms of crude oil, due to OPEC+’s plan to significantly reduce production from November, oil prices continued to rise during the holiday season. As of October 7, Brent prices rose by 9.96 dollars/barrel, or 11.32%; WTI rose by 13.15 dollars/barrel, or 16.54%. However, the market’s concern about economic recession still depressed the oil price, which mainly fell after the festival. As of October 14, Brent price fell by 6.29 dollars/barrel, or 6.42%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 7.03 USD/barrel, or 7.59%.
Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China soared. On September 30, the price was 20075 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 24367 yuan/ton, 21.38% higher than before the festival, and 73.84% higher than the same period last year.
In terms of PX, domestic PX prices rose. On September 30, the price was 9000 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than before the festival, and 27.4% higher than the same period last year.
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In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market is weak, and the price has been weakening continuously. On September 30, the price was 8693 yuan/ton, and on October 14, the price was 8420 yuan/ton, down 3.14% from before the festival, and up 1.32% from the same period last year.
3、 Future market forecast
In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market will continue the long short game. Positive, OPEC+production reduction, European winter energy supply shortage. Bad news: European and American interest rate hikes are expected, and the market is worried about the economic recession depressing oil demand. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, OPEC+’s decision on crude oil production, the impact of the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.
At present, the demand side of toluene is weak, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the price is weak. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.
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