According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 22 to 28 (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 2255 yuan/ton to around 2265 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.44% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.85%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.61%. Affected by weather and other factors, the unloading speed is limited, and the methanol inventory at the port is depleted. However, due to the high import volume in recent times, the inventory is mainly maintained at a high level, and downstream bargain hunting continues to suppress the market. The overall market performance is still weak, with narrow fluctuations as the main factor.

As of the close on September 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2360 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2367 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2347 yuan/ton. It closed at 2364 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 170414 lots, the open position is 877555, and the daily increase position is -7577.
On the cost side, downstream pre holiday replenishment is coming to an end, coal prices are gradually stabilizing, and cost support is relatively stable. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The starting price of the northwest factory of glacial acetic acid has been raised by 40 yuan/ton, and the company’s shipments are smooth. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is fluctuating. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is running smoothly. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the overall recovery of the equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 25th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at a price of 325.5-326.5 US dollars per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 100-101 cents per gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 280.5-281.5 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.
Market forecast: Pre holiday stocking is coming to an end, traditional downstream demand is beginning to weaken, and domestic olefin plants are maintaining high operating rates, which will support prices. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will be consolidating and observing.