According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 5th to 12th (as of 10:00), the price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2271 yuan/ton to around 2288 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.73% during the period, a month on month decrease of 4.02%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.88%. The domestic methanol market has seen a significant increase, mainly due to the strength of olefins in mainland China, an increase in external procurement volume, and low inventory levels of enterprises, resulting in a low supply of tradable goods. Downstream and trade sectors are actively following up with a buying mentality..

As of the close on September 12th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated strongly. The MA2601 contract opened at 2398 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2422 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2381 yuan/ton. It closed at 2407 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 10 yuan/ton from yesterday’s closing settlement. As of the closing, the MA2601 contract position was 756000 lots, a decrease of 12700 lots from the previous trading day.
On the cost side, coal supply is stable, demand follow-up is insufficient, market bearish sentiment is heating up, and cost support is weakening. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid is generally stable, and factories often ship according to their own situation. Currently, the sales pressure on factories is still acceptable. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with an upward trend. The main production areas have experienced a slight increase driven by costs, and their acceptance of the increase is still acceptable. Downstream demand for goods remains high. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is running smoothly. The price of methanol has strengthened significantly and costs have increased, making it difficult for the price of Henan dimethyl ether to rise due to downstream weakness. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, the overall recovery of the equipment is less than the loss, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 11th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 321.5-322.5 US dollars/ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 94-95 cents per gallon; The closing price of the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 292.5-293.5 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
Based on the overall forecast, the methanol market is currently in a relatively stagnant state due to the combined effects of multiple factors. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.