According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 4th to 8th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8400 yuan/ton to 8371 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.34% during the period, a month on month drop of 4.17%, and a year-on-year drop of 4.87%. The supply has decreased, while the main downstream industries have slightly increased production, resulting in an increase in raw material digestion, but the supply is still significantly higher than demand. Holders lack confidence in the future market and engage in negotiations to offer discounts on actual orders, resulting in a volatile downward trend in the domestic BDO market.

On the supply side, the Shaanxi unit has been shut down for maintenance, Xinjiang has experienced short-term shutdowns due to boiler issues, and other units are operating stably. The industry supply has once again decreased, and the supply side support has slightly increased. The supply side of BDO is affected by negative factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: Domestic calcium carbide prices have bottomed out and rebounded, with the main reason for the price increase being changes in the market supply and demand environment. With the sustained low prices in the early stage, the losses of production enterprises have deepened, and the recent rise in raw material costs such as orchid charcoal and electricity in Ningxia has led to an increase in shutdown facilities, and some enterprises have reduced their operating loads. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is weak and consolidating. As of 3:00 pm on August 8th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2380 yuan/ton. The weak consolidation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol, as well as the negative impact of BDO cost factors.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG, PU slurry and other industries have seen an increase in production, while PBT and PBAT have seen a decline in production. There has been no significant change in the load of other industries, and the overall demand for raw materials has increased, but the supply is significantly higher than the demand, resulting in continued supply and demand pressure. At the same time, multiple downstream industries are experiencing a decline in market conditions, resulting in a weak ability to accept high prices for raw materials and severe pressure on prices when entering the market. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, the supply of BDO market will increase, while the demand will slightly decrease, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry will continue. Moreover, many downstream industries are experiencing weak fluctuations, with cost pressures and severe bargaining over raw materials. The BDO analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly be dominated by weak consolidation.