According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 7th to 11th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2430 yuan/ton to around 2370 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.47% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.42%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.06%. Affected by the sufficient replenishment from the mainland to ports, the methanol market in ports needs to maintain a low level, with accumulated inventory. Recently, the methanol market in ports has continued to decline and operate mainly. The methanol market in mainland China is weak and volatile, and the market is still constrained by weak terminal demand. Downstream consumers continue to maintain cautious procurement for essential needs, and the upward momentum of the methanol market is insufficient.

As of the close on July 11th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2509 for methanol futures opened at 2395 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2403 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2363 yuan/ton. It closed at 2370 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 23 yuan or 0.96% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 707228 lots, the position is 685261, and the daily increase is -10208.
On the cost side, the coal market is still constrained by high inventory and loose fundamentals, with low prices and weak cost support. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
On the demand side, terminal demand remains weak, with narrow fluctuations in olefin demand, suppressing the methanol market. Ice acetic acid: The market price of ice acetic acid is running low across the board. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is running smoothly. The formaldehyde plant in the main production area has a load reduction operation, which reduces the demand for methanol from formaldehyde. Dimethyl ether: The operation of the dimethyl ether plant remains at a low level, mainly focused on selling inventory. Downstream industrial use is purchased on demand, and market buying and selling sentiment is weak, resulting in a decrease in demand for methanol. Most downstream products have reduced fluctuations in methanol demand, and the demand for methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment is greater than the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The planned maintenance of methanol facilities in the next cycle will decrease, while the restoration of facilities may increase, resulting in a narrow increase in overall market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close of July 10th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $334.50-335.50 per ton, a decrease of $5 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 82.00-83.00 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 243.50-244.50 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
Market forecast, under the game of supply and demand. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.