According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market saw a unilateral upward trend in May. From May 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased from 5233 yuan/ton to 5438 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 3.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.86%.
In the first half of the month, some enterprises in certain regions continued to conduct inspections on their equipment, resulting in limited ethanol supply and strong prices of raw material corn, leading to significant cost pressures. As a result, enterprises showed a clear willingness to raise prices.

In mid month, the ethanol market continued to rise, with some regions facing significant cost pressures for enterprises. Orders were shipped, production was not high, inventory pressure was not significant, and there was a clear intention to increase prices. However, new orders were limited in transactions.
At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices stabilized at a high level. Enterprises in the Northeast region continue to undergo rotation inspections, with low production rates and a clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, without inventory pressure, prices may remain stable. The transaction situation in Henan region is still acceptable, with prices maintaining a high level of consolidation.
On the cost side, in the first half of the month, corn prices remained relatively firm, and the purchase prices for deep processing have also increased. Prices in production areas have continued to rise recently, and traders’ shipping mentality has slightly changed. Overall, there is not much corn surplus in the production area, and the quotation is firm. The price of corn fluctuated in the second half of the month. The arrival volume of deep processed corn in Shandong and Hebei is still acceptable, and some enterprises have seen a narrow reduction in corn prices. Henan’s deep processing enterprises have generally received goods and prices have increased. Before the wheat harvest, grassroots grain points were able to monetize their shipments, but overall supply pressure was not significant. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
There are unlikely to be significant favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.
On the demand side, from the demand side, the demand for Baijiu fluctuates little, and the downstream stock of chemical industry needs to be replenished. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.
Future forecast: Limited supply, partial orders shipped, downstream stocking nearing completion. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic ethanol market will remain strong and stable in the short term.