According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will experience a volatile downward trend in March 2025. From March 1st to 31st, the domestic toluene market price fell from 6500 yuan/ton to 6060 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 6.77% during the period.

Early month: The crude oil trend is weak, the toluene market is dragged down, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. In terms of supply, some facilities in Shandong have undergone maintenance this cycle, while port inventory in East China is relatively high, and overall inventory in the South China market is also high. In terms of demand, Shandong region maintains essential procurement, while the East China market delivers
Mid month: The crude oil trend is weak, the toluene market is dragged down, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. On the supply side, the downstream purchasing intention in Shandong region is still acceptable, and the overall inventory is low. Due to the impact of the decline in crude oil prices, the market will operate weakly during the cycle. The port inventory in East China is relatively high, dragged down by the sluggish local liquid chemical market, resulting in an overall decline in prices during the cycle. On the demand side, the overall downstream demand tends to be rigid, with no significant positive boost. Overall, the demand side is weak.
Late of the month: The crude oil trend first fell and then rose, with overall fluctuations and an upward trend. The demand for disproportionation and oil blending industries in Shandong region during the week is good, with overall low inventory and stable refinery quotations. The inventory in the East China region is still at a relatively high level, and market sentiment is weak. Overall, the toluene market has shown a stable to weak performance this week.
Cost wise: The international oil price trend in March has declined. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.36 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.76 per barrel. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased. If the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine ends, the United States will also ease its oil sanctions against Russia, causing international oil prices to fall. Overall, the trend of international oil prices has declined.
Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of March 31st, East China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6150-6250 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On March 31st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7600 yuan/ton for xylene, which was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities operated stably and sold normally, with a price increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to February 28th. As of March 28th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $822-824/ton FOB Korea and $847-849/ton CFR China, a decrease of $19/ton from February 27th.
Market forecast: The crude oil market trend is still weak, and there is insufficient guidance for the toluene market. In terms of supply, toluene companies have been operating well recently, with sufficient supply and good shipment situation in Shandong region. The market trading situation in Shandong region is also good. On the demand side, the downstream oil blending industry’s purchasing intention is still acceptable, while the diversified industry’s purchasing tends to be more rigid, and the overall demand performance is relatively stable. Overall, the market’s positive outlook is limited, and it is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the short term.