According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 7th to 14th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2669 yuan/ton to 2656 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.47% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.04%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%. Domestic methanol market volatility consolidation. At the beginning of the week, some traders restocked and production enterprises limited their shipments, driving the rise of the mainland methanol market. However, downstream buyers remained cautious after the rise, and their willingness to purchase was average, which suppressed the market. As a result, the market negotiation atmosphere weakened and prices were running weakly.

As of the close on March 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2532 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2553 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2519 yuan/ton. It closed at 2539 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 22 yuan or 0.86% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 739859 lots, the position is 873077 lots, and the daily increase position is -7501 lots.

In terms of cost, with the warming weather in most parts of the country and the end of the heating season in the north, the demand for electricity from residents continues to weaken. Coupled with the increase in clean energy output such as hydropower, thermal power units will gradually enter maintenance mode, and daily power consumption of power plants is still expected to decline. In addition, there is still pressure on coal storage in upstream and downstream ports, and downward pressure on coal prices. The large-scale procurement of power by terminals is still insufficient, and the main focus in the future may still be on demand driven transportation. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Guangxi Huayi is expected to complete maintenance, and the demand for acetic acid will increase; Downstream formaldehyde: The start-up of the Xinquan plant in Baoji has led to an increase in formaldehyde demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Yunnan pyrolysis plant storage and operation plan, increasing demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: The shutdown of Shandong Lushanfa has affected production, Reduced MTBE demand; Downstream chloride: The maintenance of Jinling Dongying unit has reduced the demand for chloride. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment is greater than the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of March 13th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 369.50-370.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 107.00-108.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 354.50-355.50 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.

In the future forecast, domestic construction will remain at a relatively high level, downstream MTO units will restart, and traditional demand will remain relatively stable, with good performance in the real world. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.