1、 Market situation
This week, the price of acrylic acid in the market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the upward trend narrowing slightly. As of January 15th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.99% compared to the beginning of this month (7550.00 yuan/ton). Despite the price increase, the upward space for the price will narrow.
2、 Supply side analysis
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1. Maintenance and resumption of production of the acrylic acid plant: The recent maintenance and resumption of production of the acrylic acid plant have had a direct impact on the supply side. Due to maintenance or reduced load operation, some acrylic acid plants have maintained a narrowing trend in the utilization rate of acrylic acid production capacity. However, as the maintenance equipment gradually resumes production, the supply side is expected to release more capacity, but the specific release speed and scale still need to be observed.
2. New production capacity: Some of the new production capacity is about to be put into operation, which will further increase market supply. However, due to the uncertainty of the production progress and capacity release of new capacity, the impact on market supply is still difficult to determine.
3、 Demand side analysis
1. Downstream demand: The main downstream application areas of acrylic acid include coatings, adhesives, textile auxiliaries, water treatment agents, etc. However, downstream demand has not significantly increased recently, and even in some industries, companies still maintain cautious inventory management strategies. This has led to an increased wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with factories maintaining long-term inventory consumption and low price source inquiries being average.
2. Market wait-and-see: Due to the expected release of supply, but downstream demand has not shown significant growth, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. This further exacerbates the range consolidation trend of the acrylic acid market.
4、 Raw material cost analysis
As the main raw material of acrylic acid, the price fluctuation of propylene directly affects the production cost of acrylic acid. As of January 15th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 7068.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.40% compared to the beginning of this month (6835.75 yuan/ton). This relatively stable cost environment provides a certain guarantee for the production of acrylic acid, but it is still affected by changes in the raw material supply chain.
5、 Market Competition and Strategy
The competition in the acrylic acid market is fierce, and companies may adopt price reduction strategies to compete for market share. However, in situations of supply-demand imbalance, this strategy may not work as expected. Faced with fierce market competition, some companies may choose more sustainable development plans, such as improving product quality and optimizing production processes to reduce costs and enhance competitive advantages.
6、 Future prospects
In the short term, the acrylic acid market is likely to continue to maintain a volatile consolidation state. Although the expectation of supply side release is gradually increasing, the weak growth of downstream demand remains a major concern in the market. In this context, investors and related enterprises should closely monitor market dynamics and relevant information in order to make timely and reasonable judgments and decisions. At the same time, facing an uncertain macroeconomic environment, enterprises also need to maintain flexible response strategies in order to adjust their business strategies in a timely manner in the face of market changes.
In summary, the phenomenon of consolidation in the acrylic acid market under the supply-demand game is the result of multiple factors working together. The future market trend will depend on further competition between supply and demand sides, as well as changes in the macroeconomic environment.
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