According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic rare earth market prices declined in May. The rare earth index was 379 points on May 30, a decrease of 23 points from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 62.36% from the highest point of 1007 points (2022-24) in the cycle, and an increase of 39.85% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all decreased. As of the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide was 382500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.56%; The price of neodymium metal is 480000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.69% in price; The price of praseodymium oxide was 387500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.91% in price; The price of praseodymium metal was 520500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.51% in price; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 465000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.92% in price; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 372500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.45%.

The domestic heavy rare earth market prices have declined, with dysprosium oxide prices dropping by 4.69% to 1.93 million yuan/ton as of the end of the month; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.57 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10% in price; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.9 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.0% in price; The price of metallic terbium is 7.5 million yuan/ton, while the price of oxidized terbium is 6.175 million yuan/ton, and the prices of all products have declined.

In May, the domestic rare earth market prices fell, and due to weak terminal demand, market activity gradually cooled down, and trading remained cautious. The performance of the metal market is relatively calm, with some metal merchants actively lowering prices to attract buyers. There are separated enterprises in Jiangxi and Guangxi regions with little change in operating rates and little change in heavy rare earth production; In addition, some magnetic material companies mainly digest inventory and are not actively purchasing, resulting in a decline in rare earth prices.

According to statistics, in April 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 870000 and 850000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35.9% and 33.5%, respectively; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 36% of the total sales of new vehicles. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.985 million and 2.94 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.3% and 32.3%, respectively; The sales of new energy vehicles account for 32.4% of the total sales of new vehicles. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. The export volume of rare earths in April was 4566 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%; The total export volume of rare earths from January to April was 18049.5 tons, an increase of 10% year-on-year. The import volume of rare earths in April was 13145.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.5%; The total import volume of rare earths from January to April was 48842.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%. The slight decrease in exports has to some extent suppressed the domestic rare earth market prices.

Market forecast: Downstream magnetic material companies have been inactive in recent times, with cold inquiries and strong bearish sentiment on the market. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will continue to decline in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.