According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 26th, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3483 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% from the beginning of last month.

 

PVA

Upstream raw material trends

 

urea

 

This month, domestic urea prices have fluctuated and risen. On April 29th, the price of urea was 2435 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the price of urea was 2415 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the beginning of the month.

 

In the first half of this month, there was support from factory orders, resulting in a slight increase in urea prices. In the second half of the month, the urea market was affected by bearish news from the Indian market, and exports were suppressed. After a slight decline in the urea market, the market returned to fundamentals. With the support of factory orders, urea prices slightly surged, but have not yet broken through the previous period’s decline.

 

Ammonium phosphate market

 

The market continues to operate weakly. The decrease in raw material prices has weakened cost support. Spring plowing has entered the final stage, with weak demand in the ammonium phosphate market and limited new transactions. The operating rate of enterprises has declined, and the market supply has decreased.

 

Monoammonium phosphate

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2853 yuan/ton on April 30th. On April 1st, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3096 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 7.56%.

 

Diammonium phosphate

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3916 yuan/ton on April 30th. On April 1st, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3976 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 1.51%.

 

Potassium sulfate

 

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this month was 3250 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this month was 3176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26%.

 

In April, the domestic potassium sulfate price showed a downward trend, with weak market demand and overall insufficient transactions. Currently, the ex factory price of 52% Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly between 3050-3300 yuan/ton, and the price in the southern market is higher than that in the northern market, with transaction negotiations being the main focus. The operating rate of resource-based potassium sulfate manufacturers is relatively normal, and there has been a delay in the maintenance of the Guotou Luo potassium plant. With the policy of monthly settlement, the current market price for 52% powder sales is mostly between 3150-3350 yuan/ton, and the market price for 50% potassium sulfate powder in the Qinghai water salt system is mostly between 2800-2850 yuan/ton. The transaction volume is negotiable.

 

In terms of supply and demand

 

Due to frequent fluctuations in raw materials and poor stocking enthusiasm in the middle and lower reaches, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has changed rapidly in recent times. For example, from mid March to mid April, due to the delay in summer fertilizer preparation, business operations decreased. However, in late April, the flow of goods in the market accelerated, and the preparation time was shortened, resulting in a significant improvement in capacity utilization. To reduce risks, there has been an increase in the practice of enterprises adjusting production based on sales, and the inventory of enterprises has also decreased since mid April.

At present, the order volume of compound fertilizer enterprises is generally sufficient, and most of them have already arranged their orders until mid May, with some even arranging them until late May. With stable orders and sufficient support for goods to be shipped, the willingness of enterprises to adjust prices decreases, and the practical significance of price adjustments becomes relatively limited. With the advancement of summer fertilizer stocking and distribution, the market’s stock situation has begun to improve, and many regions have entered a centralized delivery period.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

From the perspective of upstream raw materials for compound fertilizers, price fluctuations have significantly slowed down. Overall, the compound fertilizer market has been stabilizing recently, with price fluctuations gradually easing. It is expected that the compound fertilizer market will maintain overall stability in the near future, with slight fluctuations in some areas, but the overall fluctuation range of the market is relatively limited.

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