According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 1st to 22nd, 2024, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China continued to rise, with a market price of 224960 yuan/ton on the 1st and 281310 yuan/ton on the 22nd. The cumulative increase in April was 25.05%, with a single day increase of 6.31% on the 22nd.
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The tin market has been rising for four consecutive weeks
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly K-bar chart of Business Society, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for four consecutive weeks since April.
Supply: Myanmar’s ban on mining combined with Indonesia’s extension of approval for tight tin supply
In terms of tin mining: Starting from August 2023, the Wa State of Myanmar suspended all mining activities of mineral resources. In April 24, the Wa State reiterated the ban on tin mining and showed a strong attitude towards it. The tin ore production in the Wa region accounts for about 95% of Myanmar’s national production, and Myanmar is the first source of tin ore imports in China. The reiteration of the Wa ban has once again raised concerns in the market about future tin ore supply.
In terms of refined tin: Starting from 2024, the validity period of mining licenses in Indonesia will be extended to three years to improve the efficiency of mining quota issuance and prolong the approval process of existing enterprises. As a result, the export volume of refined tin in Indonesia has significantly declined after entering 24 years, with an export volume of 0.4 tons in January 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 99%; The export volume in February was 55 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 53%. The main source of refined tin imports in China is Indonesia, accounting for about 70% of the total. The implementation of this policy has a significant impact on both domestic and international markets.
LME Tin Inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), as of April 22, LME’s tin inventory was 4190 tons, a decrease of approximately 45.5% from the 7685 tons at the beginning of the year. Supported by continuous destocking of LME tin inventory for 24 years, Lunxi continued to rise in April.
Demand: Terminal demand improved in the first quarter
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At present, the main application area of tin in China is the electronics industry. In the downstream consumption structure of refined tin metal, it mainly includes solder, tin chemical industry, tinplate, etc. Among them, the proportion of solder is as high as 48%, followed by tin chemical industry accounting for 16%, tinplate accounting for 12%, and the total proportion of the three is about 76%. ITA states that nearly 50% of the global demand for tin comes from the soldering of electronic circuit boards, so the development of the electronics industry, including the new energy industry, has a significant impact on tin. In downstream practical applications, tin has a relatively small overall proportion, so downstream has a strong acceptance of high prices, which is also a factor that enables tin prices to rise all the way.
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in March alone, the production of integrated circuits in China increased by 28.4%, reaching a historic high of 36.2 billion units. In the later stage, as the country’s investment in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and big data fields increases, the demand for tin solder in the domestic market will also steadily increase, which is undoubtedly a favorable factor for the demand of the tin industry chain.
Future prospects:
Supply side tin raw material supply is expected to shrink. In the first quarter of 2024, the electronics industry recovered on the demand side, and industries such as photovoltaics and artificial intelligence developed well, greatly promoting the growth of tin terminal consumption. The continuous decline of LME tin inventory for 24 years has also provided support for the rise in tin prices. But with the recent market price increase, the overall spot market trading has been weak, and downstream enterprises are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Most enterprises only maintain a small amount of tin ingots for basic needs, resulting in cold spot market trading and insufficient downstream purchasing power. On the night of the 22nd, the non ferrous metal futures market both inside and outside fell, with London Tin falling 3.6% and Shanghai Tin falling 2.52% as a result. Previously, non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with most commodities generally reaching temporary highs and lacking further upward momentum. On the morning of the 23rd, Shanghai tin fell by more than 2%, and the spot tin market price on the 23rd will follow suit, which may drive some spot market inquiries. In the long run, LME tin inventory continues to decline, and there is still upward potential in overseas markets. In the near future, tin will continue to follow the fluctuations of the market and maintain a wide range of volatility. In the future, we will focus on the impact of macro news on the overall market.
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