According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market has increased. On April 7th, the rare earth index was 378 points, an increase of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.46% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 39.48% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has increased. As of the 8th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.04 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 11.32% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.965 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.17% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.555 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.24%; The domestic price trend of terbium series has significantly increased, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 6.4 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 7.45 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the prices of heavy rare earths in the market have significantly increased, with an increase in domestic rare earth market transactions and improved inquiries. Downstream enterprises have recently increased their procurement, and there has been little change in the operating rates of separated enterprises in Jiangxi and Guangxi regions, resulting in low production of heavy rare earths; In addition, some magnetic material companies have started purchasing, leading to an increase in the price trend of heavy rare earths. Recently, some heavy rare earth raw material imports have been tight, and the supply of heavy rare earth products on the market is relatively tight, leading to an upward trend in the heavy rare earth market.

According to statistics, in February 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 464000 and 477000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16% and 9.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.252 million and 1.207 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 29.4%. China’s automotive industry is booming, and the new energy vehicle market has performed particularly well, which has affected the price trend of the heavy rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments announced the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, with a slowing growth rate. In addition, China’s rare earth exports from January to February 2024 reached 8773.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%; It has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market, and the price of heavy rare earths has risen.

Market forecast: Recently, there has been an increase in orders and purchases from magnetic material companies, coupled with an improvement in inquiries compared to before. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will continue to rise in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.