Price trend

 

PVA

In March, the domestic POM market remained stable with some gains, and spot prices saw a narrow increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 27th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13525 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 0.19% compared to the beginning of the month.

 

Cause analysis

 

In terms of raw materials:

 

In March, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region fluctuated and increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent formaldehyde market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations. The price of raw material methanol stabilized first and then increased, and cost support gradually warmed up. The demand and consumption of downstream panel factories are lagging behind, and formaldehyde manufacturers are under great pressure to ship. The market is limited in terms of price increase, and the support for POM is average.

 

In terms of supply:

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

In March, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises generally increased at a high level, and the overall load rate increased from 83% at the beginning of the month to around 94% at the end of the month. However, the inventory position of most enterprises is rising slowly, and the accumulation of inventory is rare. Overall, the increase in supply pressure is limited, and the support from the supply side for POM spot is still acceptable.

 

In terms of demand:

 

The stocking situation of domestic POM downstream enterprises this month is average, and most of them just need to pick up the goods. In addition, the high price stalemate of POM in the latter half of the year has caused some resistance among buyers. Overall, the demand side entry is lagging behind, and there are some hidden drop in trading operations by traders at the end of the month, which has loosened the support for POM spot prices.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

The POM market trend in March was volatile. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is high, the inventory position of enterprises is not high, the supply of goods is tight, and the pressure on the supply side is not urgent yet. The pricing operation of manufacturers tends to be biased towards high prices. However, downstream enterprises are limited in purchasing due to high load and POM prices, resulting in delayed stock preparation follow-up. It is expected that the POM market in the future may be dragged by the demand side and the price center may loosen.

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