According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in February 2024, the domestic lead ingot market declined, with an average price of 16110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15815 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.83%.

On February 28th, the lead commodity index was 96.25, a decrease of 0.24 points from yesterday, a decrease of 28.18% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 28.97% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On February 28th, the base metal index was 1164 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.31% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile. June August was the peak season of the season, and it continued to decline after September. Judging from the weekly trend, there is more decline than increase.

The entire February lead ingot market was affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the market remained almost stable in the first half of the year, with only narrow fluctuations in prices. After the opening of the market after the holiday, there was a wave of decline, and after the decline, it once again maintained a narrow fluctuation trend. At the beginning of the month, as the Spring Festival approached, the downstream basically completed pre holiday stocking, and the market had a strong festive atmosphere. Smelters and downstream battery companies gradually entered the holiday season, with a significant decline in production. The lead ingot market had cold trading, and the holiday atmosphere was relatively strong, resulting in a stable and weak market operation. On the 19th after the holiday, the Shanghai lead market opened. Due to the significant increase in LME lead inventory during the holiday period, the Shanghai lead market fell by more than 1.6%, and the spot market significantly declined. However, due to the fact that most production enterprises have not yet resumed work after the holiday, the holiday atmosphere in the market remains strong. In addition, due to the adverse weather conditions in many parts of China after the holiday, transportation has been greatly affected, and market transactions in various regions are relatively quiet. In terms of demand, battery companies are also in a market of resuming work after the holiday, and overall production is slowly increasing. Overall, the market is still in a post holiday recovery period, and the volatility of the futures market is relatively flat. Recently, the market has been operating weakly with little volatility. Under the weak supply-demand pattern, it is expected that the market will operate steadily in the short term.

Related data:

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in January 2024, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.41 million and 2.439 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 51.2% and 47.9%, respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 787000 and 729000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 85.3% and 78.8%..

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in December 2023 was 625000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%; The cumulative lead production in China from January to December 2023 was 7.564 million tons, a cumulative increase of 11.2%.

According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on February 21, the global lead market will shift from supply shortages a year ago to overcapacity in 2023. In 2023, the global lead market has an oversupply of 92000 tons. In 2022, there was a shortage of 134000 tons of supply. The main reason for the change is due to the increase in production in China, India, and Australia, with the surplus in December increasing from 18600 tons in November to 24700 tons.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in December 2023, global refined lead production was 1.2174 million tons, consumption was 1.1723 million tons, and there was an oversupply of 45000 tons. The global lead ore production in December 2023 was 394000 tons, and the total refined lead production in 2023 was 14.6622 million tons, with a total consumption of 14.59 million tons. The overall performance in 2023 was an oversupply of 72200 tons. The global lead ore production in 2023 was 4.8711 million tons.