According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the prices of heavy rare earths in the domestic market have significantly decreased, while the prices of light rare earths have continued to decline. The rare earth index reached 433 points on the 7th, a decrease of 57.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 59.78% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has significantly declined. As of the 8th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.225 million yuan/ton, and the post holiday price has decreased by 10.28%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.235 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.51% in price; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.775 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 12.60%; The domestic price of terbium series has declined, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 6.8 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 8.7 million yuan/ton.

In recent times, the price trend of heavy rare earth market has fallen, with limited transactions in the rare earth market, scarce new orders, and low purchasing willingness of enterprises. Some enterprises have recently lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material enterprises have seen a decline in production, with only 30% of them operating. The overall production of the magnetic material industry is around 50%, mainly driven by inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, and the overall market support is insufficient. The pessimistic sentiment has intensified, and the trend of the heavy rare earth market has significantly declined. In 2023, the total control indicators of the third batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 15000 tons and 13850 tons respectively. Generally, two batches of indicators will be published every year. In 2023, the third batch of indicators will be published, and the mining output will increase, which will be bad for the domestic rare earth market.

According to statistics, the production of new energy vehicles in November 2023 was 1.074 million units, with sales of 1.026 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and 30%. From January to November 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.426 million and 8.34 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.5% and 36.7%, and a market share of 30.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in November were 4205.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to November was 48867.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a sustained decline in the rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly decline in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.