1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of November 17th, the spot nickel quotation was 136733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 32.44%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 10 times and risen 1 time, and the recent decline in nickel prices is still unstoppable.

On the macro level, the Chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve stated that if necessary, more measures will be taken on interest rates, without discussing interest rate cuts; The Chairman of the Chicago Fed stated that the primary task of changing interest rates is to address inflation progress; The Chairman of the Dallas Fed stated that inflation is still too high. China’s exports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year in October, while imports increased by 3%. The PPI of the Eurozone decreased by 12.4% year-on-year in September.

In terms of supply: In October 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 24000 tons, an increase of 8.9% month on month and 55.7% year on year. It is expected that the national refined nickel production will reach 24000 tons in November 2023, which is the same as the refined nickel production in October.

In terms of demand: Alloys are the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for alloys such as military and shipbuilding, while civilian alloys are not good. The demand for electroplating has remained relatively stable. Stainless steel inventory is on the high side, and the scope of production reduction by steel mills in October has expanded.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

In summary, nickel prices continue to be under pressure due to factors such as oversupply, sluggish demand, and loose costs for electrowinning nickel. Refined nickel production continues to be released, inventory continues to accumulate, and excess pressure is becoming increasingly prominent. As stainless steel plants continue to reduce production in November, demand for nickel is weakening. The cost of electrowinning nickel has loosened due to the expected increase in intermediate supply. Overall, the pattern of nickel basic supply exceeding demand is relatively clear. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will continue to fluctuate and operate weakly.