Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2380.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2406.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.10%. Weekend prices fell 8.05% year-on-year. On July 24th, the urea commodity index was 114.42, an increase of 2.5 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 105.79% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Increased cost support, better downstream demand, and sufficient urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly increased this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly increased, rising from 4068.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4086.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.44%, and the weekend price has decreased by 33.13% year-on-year; The price of Anthracite rose slightly. This week, the price of Anthracite (washing medium block) in Yangquan was 1010 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia slightly decreased, dropping from 2866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2833.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.16%. The weekend price decreased by 24.24% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly increased, providing good support for urea prices. The price of melamine downstream of urea slightly decreased this week, from 6575.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6650.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.37%.

From a demand perspective: agricultural demand has increased, while industrial demand is average. The peak season for fertilizer use in summer has begun, leading to an increase in agricultural demand. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late July, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly increased, and urea cost support has increased. The downstream agricultural peak season begins, with good agricultural demand and average industrial demand. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.