According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic butadiene market fell first and then rose in April. From April 1 to 28, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 8551 yuan/ton to 8851 yuan/ton, with a 3.51% drop in the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 5.83%, and a 9.83% year-on-year drop in the price.

At the beginning of the month, the first phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical plant was restarted, gradually releasing production, and the supply side was relatively empty. At the same time, the decline in external market conditions has dragged down the weak atmosphere of the domestic butadiene market. In mid month, due to the news of low prices in the external market and the reduction of Sinopec’s supply prices, the market atmosphere was relatively empty. In addition, some inquiries had a clear intention to suppress prices, resulting in a slight weakening of the focus of the domestic butadiene market. In the latter half of the month, due to the impact of external market prices and high prices from mainstream domestic suppliers, as well as the increase in Sinopec supply prices and the approaching holiday, some downstream restocking occurred, and the butadiene market rebounded and rose.

On the cost side, since OPEC, an oil producing country, announced an additional significant production reduction on April 3, oil prices have continued to hover at high levels, boosted by positive supply side factors. Especially with the decline in inflation levels in the United States, the market is hoping that the Federal Reserve will relax its tight monetary policy, and the pressure on the demand side will ease. The WTI once exceeded $83 per barrel, reaching a high in the past five months.

In April, the domestic naphtha market first rose and then fell, and the terminal restructuring just needed to replenish. Some ethylene demand was concentrated and released, and refineries were actively shipping, resulting in good market trading. Weak costs and demand, terminal restructuring, weak demand for ethylene, limited market trading, and a downward trend in the naphtha market. The cost of butadiene is mixed.

On the supply side, Liaoyang Petrochemical’s 30000 ton/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on April 8th, with an estimated shutdown time of 30-40 days. The 120000 ton/year butadiene plant of North Huajin Chemical is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance around April 28th, lasting for about 10 days. The 160000 ton/year butadiene extraction unit of Fushun Petrochemical operates stably, with a bidding price of 8200 yuan/ton for 300 tons of goods for export; The transaction price is 8320 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market for butadiene has fluctuated, with some products experiencing strong fluctuations in crude oil prices and rising prices. Some products are experiencing weak downstream demand and lower market conditions, while downstream profits are still under pressure. Some industries are experiencing poor operating conditions. Specifically, the decline in nitrile rubber was relatively small, with a 1.55% increase in butadiene rubber and a 5.69% increase in styrene butadiene rubber. The demand side for butadiene is slightly bearish.

In terms of external trading: On April 27th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $1035- $1045 per ton; The Chinese CFR report is between $1055 and $1065 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe fell: FOB Rotterdam closed at $695-705 per ton, down $30 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 795-805 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Korea/ $1035- $1045 per ton/ 0 yuan/ton

Asia/ CFR China/ $1055- $1065 per ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ FOB Rotterdam/ 695-705 USD/ton/- $30/ton

Europe/ FD Northwest Europe/ 795-805 euros/ton/ -10 euros/ton

In the future, it is predicted that the maintenance of some devices will form a high level of support for supply, and there is still a demand for pre holiday replenishment in the downstream, which may support the high and strong price of butadiene. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.