Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price fell slightly this week, and the urea price fell from 2841.88 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2833.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.29%, down 2.15% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on March 12 was 131.80, which was the same as yesterday, down 13.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 137.05% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support weakened, downstream demand was good, and urea supply was abundant

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea fell this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream market of urea fell sharply this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, from 5934.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5044.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 15.00%, down 30.35% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite rose slightly, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing lump) rose by 30 yuan/ton to 1510 yuan/ton at the weekend; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4440.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4406.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.75%, down 3.22% year on year. The price of upstream raw materials fell sharply, and the support for urea price was insufficient. The price of melamine downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 8275.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8225.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.60%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has gradually followed up, and industrial demand has increased. The use of fertilizer for spring ploughing is gradually followed up, and the agricultural demand is good. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is general. The start of plate and melamine enterprises has increased slightly, and the purchase of raw materials is mainly needed. From the perspective of supply, some gas-head enterprises have started to resume production. The daily production of urea is about 170000 tons, and the supply is sufficient.

The market fell slightly in the aftermarket

The domestic urea market may fall slightly in the middle and late March. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea have risen and fallen, and the cost of urea is not supported enough. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand increased. The daily output of urea is about 170000 tons, and the supply is sufficient. In the future, urea may fall in a narrow range.