Price trend

In January, the domestic POM market maintained a strong operation, and the overall performance of prices was stable. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 1, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14000 yuan/ton, and the price level was+0.48% higher than that at the beginning of January.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province rose slightly in January. From the figure below, it can be seen that formaldehyde has fallen mainly in the past three months, and the price has rebounded this month. By the end of January, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1170-1300 yuan/ton. In January, around the Spring Festival, many formaldehyde manufacturers had holidays in advance, and the formaldehyde shipments were general. The formaldehyde market rose slightly with the upstream methanol.

On the supply side: In January, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to decline at a high level, and the average industrial load was about 87%. The inventory situation of the enterprise is OK, the inventory position is low, and the gross profit per ton of processing profit falls.

Demand: Although the POM industry load has dropped, the market supply is still abundant. The manufacturer’s ex-works price was firm and increased at the end of the month. Under its guidance, the mentality of traders is supported to some extent, but the demand is general, and the on-site shipments are mostly negotiated based on actual orders. The enthusiasm of terminal enterprises in stock preparation is general, the release of demand for stock preparation before the holiday is slow, the resumption of work after the holiday is not complete, and the follow-up is slightly delayed.

Aftermarket forecast

In January, the POM market remained stagnant. The load of domestic polymerization plants has been reduced at a high level, and the overall supply is abundant. The ex-factory price of domestic materials is strong, with a slight increase at the end of the month. The pressure on inventory is moderate, while the demand is relatively weak. Downstream enterprises mainly digest the inventory, and most of the goods are scattered orders. After the current holiday, the momentum in the market still needs to be improved. It is expected that the POM market will continue to run strongly in the short term due to the support of the supply side.