In 2022, the MIBK market fluctuated in a narrow range to the beginning of the second quarter. The epidemic broke out in many places, the terminal consumption was sluggish, and the domestic trade orders were seriously insufficient. The market went down all the way to the beginning of September, hitting the lowest point of 9580 yuan/ton at the end of the year. In September, as the upstream products of the industrial chain recovered, the MIBK market stopped falling and rebounded under the support of cost. In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of domestic factories was concentrated, and MIBK continued to rise to 15600 yuan/ton at the end of the year under the support of a favorable supply side. The annual increase was 9.51, with an amplitude of 61.5%.

The first stage (January August): the negative cost side superimposed logistics factors, and the domestic MIBK market declined significantly. On January 1, 2022, the domestic market offered 14200 yuan/ton, then the market fell slightly and then retreated, and the market offer continued to be 13900 yuan/ton in late April. On the whole, the market fluctuated slightly from January to April.

Subsequently, the epidemic situation gradually expanded, the logistics and transportation were limited, and under the influence of the sharp decline of upstream crude oil, the raw material acetone fell broadly, and the downstream terminal was filled with bad news. It was difficult to have real order negotiations on the site, and the pressure on traders grew day by day. The market fell sharply from May to early September, and the market offer was 9580 yuan/ton as of September 10, a cumulative decline of 33%.

The second stage (September December): cost support, but more under the leadership of supply and demand, MIBK market started to rise all the way. In September, as the hot weather around the country subsided, the impact of various policies such as power and production restriction slowed down. Many terminal industries returned to work after the off-season. The main raw material, acetone, rose by 31% in the mainstream negotiation price of the East China market in September. Supported by costs, the MIBK market rose significantly.

In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of MIBK enterprises was concentrated. Jilin Petrochemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, Dongying Yimeide and Zhenjiang Li Changrong all stopped for maintenance. The supply side was tightened, while the procurement of downstream antioxidant 4020 was improved. Supported by the favorable supply and demand, the MIBK market rose significantly in the fourth quarter, rising to 15500 yuan/ton at the end of the year.

In 2022, the total output of China’s MIBK will be 104500 tons, an increase of 16% month on month, and the monthly average output will be 8700 tons. The annual capacity utilization rate will be relatively high. The operating rate will be low from November to December. Under the tight supply, the market price will increase by 15% each month, which shows that the supply will have a great impact on the market. In 2022, the industry prosperity and external environmental impact will restrain terminal demand, and the overall decline will be significant. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price in 2022 will be 12214.4 yuan/ton, down 41% compared with 20694.8 yuan/ton in 2021.

From the perspective of the business community, it is expected that the mibk market will continue to rise in January as 2023 enters. On the one hand, the supply will decline significantly, and the spot circulation will be low and relatively concentrated. On the other hand, there may be a replenishment plan for downstream antioxidants near manufacturers. Merchandise holders continued to push up, and the market was strong or continued to push up. In the medium and long term, MIBK has only 125000 tons of capacity in China, most of which are contracted to supply antioxidants in major downstream industries, with limited market circulation. In the later stage, we should continue to pay attention to the fluctuations of raw acetone and the changes of major downstream demand.