Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the figure above that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week. The urea price rose from 2772.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 2790.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.65%, 11.42% year-on-year. On December 4, the urea commodity index was 129.77, unchanged from yesterday, 14.81% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and 133.40% higher than the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Increased cost support, general downstream demand, and tight urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in China rose this week

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea rose slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell sharply, rising from 4098.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5010.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 22.25%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.55%; The price of anthracite rose slightly. Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) rose from 1630 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1710 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4590.00 yuan/ton last weekend to 4773.33 yuan/ton this weekend, an increase of 3.99%, 4.22% year-on-year. Upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the price support for urea increased. This week, the price of melamine at the downstream of urea was adjusted at a high level, at 8333.33 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is average, and industrial demand is normal. The operation rate of compound fertilizer plant is high, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is good. The board and melamine enterprises started in general, and just needed to purchase. Downstream has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high priced urea, and procurement slows down. From the aspect of supply: environmental protection inspection in Shanxi has been delayed. Some gas enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Mainly up slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the first half of December. According to the urea analyst of the business association, the upstream anthracite of urea. The price of liquefied gas rose slightly, and the urea cost support increased. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is normal, the export orders are orderly promoted, and the urea supply is tight. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.