1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, aniline continued its rising trend in late August this month, with prices rising continuously. On September 1, the price in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10100-11000 yuan/ton; On September 28, the price in Shandong was 12000-12300 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12800-13000 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month is 18.84% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 10.15% higher than that in the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Raw materials, pure benzene: The price of pure benzene rose sharply this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 7617 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7901 yuan/ton. This month, it rose 3.72%, 1.55% higher than the same period last year. In terms of cost, crude oil fell broadly this month, and cost support weakened again. On the demand side, the prices of most downstream products of pure benzene rose this month, and the profitability improved. Downstream shutdown devices were restarted successively in the early stage, and the demand for pure benzene was repaired. The improvement of the demand side drove the pure benzene higher. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month, but due to the impact of typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level.

Nitric acid: the cost side is favorable to the supply and demand side, driving the domestic nitric acid price up. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2167 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2333 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price was 7.69% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 32.56% lower than that at the same period last year.

The downstream MDI market is stronger, the demand for aniline is strong, the demand for terminal rubber additives is improved, and the demand for aniline is generally warmer. Since the middle and late August, the load reduction of aniline plant and the maintenance news have been concentrated. In addition, Nanhua and Yantai Wanhua mainly supply exports and contracts, the spot supply of the market has changed from loose to tight. The pressure of aniline supply and demand eased, and the inventory of enterprises dropped rapidly to a low level. Fundamentals were strongly driven, and aniline prices rose continuously.

3、 Future market forecast

Raw materials, pure benzene: Due to the closure of the Asian American arbitrage window, the transfer of pure benzene from Asia to China has increased. It is estimated that there will still be a large number of imported shipments in October, and the inventory of ports in East China may continue to accumulate. In terms of supply, the units of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical and HSBC Petrochemical are restarted. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Guangdong Petrochemical units of CPC Central Committee will be put into production. The downstream of pure benzene follows up cautiously, and it is possible that pure benzene will weaken in the later period.

Nitric acid: supported by cost and favorable downstream market, nitric acid is constantly boosted. The demand for goods on holidays increased, and the price of nitric acid is expected to continue to rise.

At present, the supply and demand of aniline is good, and the superimposed export is expected to remain strong. It is expected that the aniline price will continue to be strong in early October. In the later period, we continued to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.