1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

This week (August 15-19), the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business agency, acetic acid fell by – 6.61% this week, with an obvious decline. At present, the supply pressure of acetic acid is obvious. At the beginning of this week, most of the plants operated stably, and the supply increased. Under the pressure of inventory, the manufacturers reduced the price and arranged the stock. In the middle of the week, the major factories in East China and Henan had equipment maintenance. In addition, local power supply was limited, and some enterprises reduced their negative production. At the weekend, the price of acetic acid stopped falling and stabilized. The price of acetic acid at the weekend is about 3000-3100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

This week (August 15-19), domestic ethyl acetate was in weak operation. According to the statistics of the business agency, the decline this week was 0.24%. The decline of ethyl acetate at the beginning of the week was mainly affected by the negative cost brought by the decline of raw acetic acid. The successive price reductions of major domestic factories have also brought negative sentiment to the market. Near the weekend, the prices of major factories in East China and Shandong have rebounded, and the market has a tendency to build a bottom. The market transaction situation is good. Due to the psychology of low-price bottom hunting in the downstream, the transaction volume has slightly increased. However, from the terminal point of view, the orders in August are still insufficient and the demand is relatively weak, which is still an important factor for the rebound of ethyl acetate. As of Friday, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 6800-7100 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

This week (8.15-19), domestic butyl acetate continued to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, the weekly increase of butyl acetate was 4.25%. On the one hand, the cost is bad and acetic acid is low. The market remained short. It is worth noting that the price of n-butanol rebounded this week, with a range of 3.54%. In the later period, with the cost conduction, it may give a certain boost to butyl. In terms of unit operation, the operation rate of butyl enterprises remains low, but under the influence of weak demand, the market transaction is not good. The market supply remains within a reasonable range. Due to the long-term inactivity of butyl ester, the operating rate of the unit is low. There is not much pressure on the supply. Butyl acetate remains weak because the downstream demand is relatively weak. Superimposing the price advantages of alternative products and other factors, the domestic mainstream price of butyl acetate at the weekend was 7500-7900 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of the acetic acid industrial chain, it can be seen that since August, the acetic acid industrial chain has been relatively weak as a whole, and the decline of acetic acid is still obvious, which has a great impact on the whole industrial chain. However, the downstream products are slightly differentiated. Ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, acetic anhydride, etc. are still falling due to the weakness of cost and supply and demand, but the decline shows signs of slowing down, indicating that the recent acetic acid industrial chain has the possibility of bottoming out and stabilizing.

5、 Future prospect of acetic acid industry chain

Future forecast: in the short term, the acetic acid industry chain is still in weak operation. On the one hand, it is due to the weak cost of raw material acetic acid in the upstream. However, as many units enter into maintenance, the plant may continue to reduce load or stop production for maintenance in the later period due to the pressure of power limitation. The supply pressure is expected to be relieved in the later period, and the acetic acid may also have a bottom, which may have a certain positive impact on the downstream. Downstream ethyl ester and butyl ester will also stop falling and stabilize as the supply declines. However, the pattern of weak terminal demand is difficult to change. Therefore, the acetic acid industry chain may rebound, but the space is not large. In general, the acetic acid industry chain is expected to bottom out in the stalemate in the latter half of the year.