1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 21st, the average nickel market price is now quoted at 182750 yuan / ton, up 3.27% from the previous trading day and 31.93% year-on-year. The nickel price continued to rebound at a low level.

Some time ago, affected by macro factors and relatively weak nickel fundamentals, nickel prices fell sharply. The macro pressure weakened this week, the US dollar index fell from a high level, and the nonferrous metals sector as a whole stabilized and rebounded. The main reason for the sharp rebound of nickel price is that the early decline was too large, and the rhythm exceeded expectations. The rebound is also a repair to the early oversold.

From the perspective of fundamentals, the current balance of nickel supply and demand tends to be surplus. The prices of upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain, including nickel ore, ferronickel and stainless steel, continue to move downward, while ferronickel and stainless steel plants are in the trend of loss, as can be seen from the weak terminal demand. The demand of downstream new energy enterprises is steadily recovering. The downstream stainless steel plant has continued to reduce production, and the overall strong supply and weak demand have put pressure on the nickel price. However, LME inventory is still low, supporting nickel prices.

Prediction: the domestic ferronickel plants are in a strong mood of loss reduction and price support, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are improving, and the low inventory is superimposed to support electrolytic nickel. It is expected that the nickel price will rebound and repair in the short term, and the price is mainly strong and volatile.