441# silicon price trend

This week, the rising trend of metallic silicon is gradually slowing down, and the heat of price rise is somewhat lower than that of the previous week. From the middle of the week, the silicon price tends to be stable, maintaining at around 19300-19500 yuan / ton. There are many tentative inquiries in the market, but few actual transactions. Metal silicon carriers’ willingness to ship increased, the situation of covering the plate gradually disappeared, and the shipping quotation was lower than the market price, but the actual transaction was still lower than expected. As of June 24, according to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of 441\\1 metal silicon in the domestic market was 19450 yuan / ton, up 4.91% from last week.

Influencing factors of metal silicon price fluctuation

Production capacity increase in Yunnan

On the supply side, in June, due to insufficient precipitation in Yunnan, the price of electricity fell slightly. The price of electricity is expected to be further reduced in July. Yunnan Dehong silicon plant will resume production in the middle of June, and the capacity of the newly restored part will be released at the end of the month.

Demand side

The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remains unchanged, the demand for aluminum alloy has not improved significantly, the operating rate is lower than that of the same period in previous years, and the price remains weak. The price of ADC12 has dropped by 500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation is 195000 yuan / ton. Under the declining market, die-casting enterprises have cost pressure, and the procurement needs to be replenished.

The reference market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream areas is 20480 yuan / ton. The overall downstream demand in the site is quiet, and the demand breakthrough has not yet emerged, resulting in weak acceptance of metal silicon prices with gradually rising raw materials.

At present, the mainstream transaction price of polycrystalline silicon in China is in the range of 230000-240000 yuan / ton. Although new capacity has been built recently, some polycrystalline silicon enterprises have been overhauled, which has led to higher prices and affected the increase in demand for raw materials. In addition, a local fire in a polysilicon plant reduced the production load of local enterprises, and the start-up fell month on month.

Aftermarket forecast

As the price of metal silicon has been rising along the way and the operating rate in Southwest China has increased in the past two weeks, the fear of high prices and wait-and-see mood of downstream enterprises has grown, and downstream customers have pressed down the price of metal silicon seriously due to their low profits. On the whole, after the rebound of metallic silicon, the upward pressure is strong, the supply increase is expected, and the demand release is limited. In the short term, when the transaction is deadlocked, the market is mostly bearish.