According to the data monitored by the business club, the PP market fluctuated in May, and the spot ex factory price of wire drawing brand rose first and then fell. As of May 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8733.33 yuan / ton, up or down -0.30% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose first and then declined in May, and the overall market fell. International crude oil continued to rise under the influence of geopolitics, and propylene rose as a whole under the cost transmission. After that, the new unit was put into operation and the enterprise resumed work one after another. The market supply was loose, the price competition among enterprises was intensified, and the downward pressure was increased. During the month, the downstream factories were generally enthusiastic about entering the market for procurement, and the overall demand for propylene was weak. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and volatile in June.

Propylene price gradually weakened, crude oil continued to run stronger, and the support on PP cost side weakened in May. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises increased at the beginning of the month and decreased in the last ten days of the month. At the end of the month, PP inventory showed a downward trend month on month, and the supply pressure was slightly relieved. In terms of demand, downstream factories follow up slowly, buyers are more resistant to high price supply, and the market trading is light. At the end of the month, traders’ shipments tended to give way to profits, and the market gradually got out of the bearish mood and returned to the fundamental dominant market. The start-up of terminal enterprises rose in a narrow range, coupled with the long-term support of upstream crude oil at the far end, it is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing material may maintain a range shock operation.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of May 31, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell by a narrow margin. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic producers and traders was about 8833.33 yuan / ton, up or down -0.93% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of +1.92%. In this month, the start-up of the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material was reduced by a narrow margin. The products of the end enterprises were in the off-season, so they took goods to maintain production, and the support of the rigid demand was weakened. The health incident affected shipments in some regions, increased transportation resistance, and put pressure on enterprise inventory. The supply side is abundant, and the demand for medical fiber products is cooling down. It is expected that the fiber will be subject to shock finishing and operation in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market fell in May. As of May 31, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9766.67 yuan / ton, up or down by -5.18% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. The number of confirmed cases in China gradually decreased in May, and the epidemic prevention pressure eased. At the same time, medical meltblown cloth materials entered the off-season of consumption, and the demand decreased. The supply of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Together with the shipping resistance, it puts pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may remain weak.

Aftermarket forecast

According to PP analysts of business agency, the domestic polypropylene market fluctuated in May, the raw material propylene market fell, the international crude oil was at a high level, and the cost support was weakened. The demand of terminal enterprises is slowly expanding, and the on-site trading has slightly recovered at the end of the critical month. The mentality of the merchants is general, and the offer is subject to the market. The freight flow in some regions is not ideal, and the market gradually returns to the basic guidance. It is expected that the PP market may maintain a narrow adjustment in the near future.