1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on May 27 was 6640 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from the price of 6704 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and up 90.08% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic LNG market price fell slightly this week, about 1% in the week. Since the beginning of the week, the domestic liquid price has been reduced frequently. Supported by the cost and the maintenance of liquid factories in some regions, the supply side is good, and the domestic liquid price has not dropped much. Near the weekend, the high-speed traffic restriction in Sichuan has boosted the tentative increase of liquid price in some regions, and the market has both ups and downs. However, the overall market is still weak. The domestic liquid factories are actively shipping, and the offer of cargo holders is lower for good. As of May 27, 6570-6700 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 6680-6790 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 6750-6800 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 6680-6730 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 6780-7000 yuan / ton in Hebei and 6850-7200 yuan / ton in Henan. The terminal price is about 7350-8900 yuan / ton. The spot CIF price of LNG in China was USD 23.10/million British thermal power, and the price was lowered.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from February 28, 2022 to May 22, 2022, the domestic liquefied natural gas showed mixed gains and losses in the cycle. It fell by 14.08% in the week of February 28. It began to fluctuate in a narrow range since March, and entered the downward trend in May.

Methanol: on May 27, the reference price of methanol was 2620.00, a decrease of 4.55% compared with May 1 (2745.00), and the raw coal price and oil price were strong. The downstream Tianjin Bohai Chemical MTO is expected to be put into operation. At present, the supply side is relatively abundant. Under the current situation, the supply and demand game, predicted by fantinglu, methanol analyst of the business club, is dominated by the short-term domestic methanol market or shock consolidation.

Liquid ammonia: on May 27, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong stabilized. Today, the prices of some large manufacturers rebounded slightly, with a range of about 50 yuan. The dealer offered tentative high price. At present, the market price is still at a relatively high level. As the supply in the region increases, the supply performance is abundant. However, the lower reaches are generally resistant to high priced raw materials, and transactions need to be maintained. Today, the mainstream price in the region is 5100-5250 yuan / ton. It is expected that the market will run at a high level in the near future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the LNG analysts of business agency, the current off-season market affects demand, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. However, the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, which brings a little vitality to the domestic LNG market. It is expected that the short-term price will fluctuate in a narrow range.