According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic rare earth market price index began to change little in late April, and the domestic rare earth industry gradually returned to rationality. The domestic praseodymium neodymium price rose slightly, and the heavy rare earth market price was mainly stable. The rare earth index was 790 on May 6, up 2 points from yesterday, down 21.55% from the highest point 1007 in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 191.51% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

In the past half month, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market rose slightly, and the trend of some mainstream praseodymium neodymium products in the rare earth market rose slightly. In terms of products:

As can be seen from the product price trend chart, the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide increased slightly. As of July 7, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 895000 yuan / ton, with a half month increase of 1.13%; The price of neodymium was 1.095 million yuan / ton, with a half month price increase of 0.46%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 900000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.0%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 862500 yuan / ton, up 1.47% in the first half of the month; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.05 million yuan / ton, an increase of 0.96%; The price of metal praseodymium is 1185000 yuan / ton, the price trend is temporarily stable, and the domestic rare earth market rises slightly.

The domestic rare earth market price has gradually returned to rationality. The on-site price has not changed much, and the market has increased slightly. Recently, the downstream procurement is normal. In addition, affected by the epidemic, some upstream and downstream production is affected, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand, and the on-site price has increased slightly. The inventory of downstream magnetic material enterprises in the field is not high, but the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the increase of rare earth market is small. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises reduce production due to insufficient raw material inventory due to the shortage of waste supply. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles is reduced, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the increase of on-site prices is limited. In addition, the rare earth metal factory was more cautious in purchasing without lock orders, and the market price of rare earth in the field increased slightly.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing, and rare earths are purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has not changed much. Affected by the mood of buying up or not, the price trend in the market has increased slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in March 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.422 million and 1.43 million respectively, up 4 times and 3.6 times month on month, down 44.5% and 43.3% year-on-year. Automobile production and sales have declined. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy has been normal, the domestic light rare earth market has increased slightly, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price has remained stable.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China has not changed much. As of July 7, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.615 million yuan / ton, an increase of 0.38% this month; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.595 million yuan / ton, and the trend is temporarily stable; The price of dysprosium metal is 3.315 million yuan / ton, with a stable trend; The price of terbium Series in China has increased slightly. The price of terbium oxide in China is 14.5 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 18.2 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earth rose slightly, and the leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which led to the stable trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places is still sufficient. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. In addition, Myanmar’s export is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price trend of heavy rare earth in the venue rose slightly.

In addition, the national policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the state is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock ore type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and the ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increment concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth has been guaranteed in terms of long-term demand. In addition, the recent news of resumption of work and production has increased the enthusiasm of downstream procurement. With the continuous change of the global supply pattern of rare earth raw materials, the deepening of the requirements of innovation driven green development, the continuous strengthening of the standardized governance of the domestic rare earth industry and the further deepening of the understanding of resource scarcity, Chen Ling, an analyst at business news agency, expects the domestic rare earth market price to rise slightly in May.