1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency: on March 30, the average price of domestic LNG was 7282 yuan / ton, down 13.78% from 8446 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and up 100.05% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In March, the domestic LNG market rose after falling, and the overall decline was about 13% in the month. With the warmer weather, the market has gradually entered the off-season of consumption, the demand in the North has decreased, and the logistics in some areas has been affected by the holding of the two national games and the Paralympic Games. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened, the market supply has increased, and the negative factors have superimposed, resulting in the decline of domestic liquid price. In the middle of the year, due to the small inventory pressure of liquid plants and the increase of demand in the South due to cold air factors, the market trading has improved, and the price has increased slightly, However, the demand follow-up was general and fell rapidly after the rise. In the second half of the month, due to the differences in local liquid prices and more resource outflows, the market was strongly driven up, and the price trend showed an upward trend. At present, the price of the terminal is about 7200-9700 yuan / ton. The spot CIF price of LNG in China is US $30.32/million British heat, and the price is reduced.

According to the weekly rise and fall from January 3, 2022 to March 27, 2022, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic liquefied natural gas show each other in the cycle, start to fall in January, rise sharply after the Spring Festival in February, rise 37.41% in the week of February 7, and then fluctuate in a narrow range.

Price rise of downstream products:

For methanol, the methanol market in central Shandong negotiated to 3030-3050 yuan / ton, the factory offered cash exchange, and the ex factory price of local factories to 3200-3250 yuan / ton. The reference price of methanol in southern Shandong is around 3040 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange. The reference price of local goods in Linyi is around 3100 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The atmosphere of negotiation was general.

The prices of urea, upstream coal and liquefied natural gas are adjusted at a high level, and the cost support is general. From the perspective of demand: strong agricultural demand and normal industrial demand. With the arrival of spring season, the freight of urea is blocked, and the dealers are actively taking in the peak season. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. In terms of supply, the urea plant in Shanxi resumed production, the urea supply increased, and the daily output returned to more than 160000 tons. At the same time, many departments have taken measures to ensure the orderly release of agricultural materials supply and light storage sources, and the policy of ensuring supply and stable price remains unchanged. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand increases, the supply of urea increases, and the aftermarket urea fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that at present, the inventory of the liquid plant is not under pressure, and the market is pushed up slightly. However, in April, the heating period ends, and the domestic LNG market is expected to stabilize.