In February 2022, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market fluctuated upward. The average price of the domestic market was 15245 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15460 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.41%.

On February 28, the lead commodity index was 94.09, up 0.18 points from yesterday, down 29.79% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.08% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the price of lead has maintained a strong shock in recent one month.

In February, the trend of lead ingot Market fluctuated widely, and the behavior was dominant on the whole. During the Spring Festival, Lun lead in the futures market pulled back. After the Spring Festival, Lun lead continued to decline and fell to a new low in the year. Later, with the opening of the Chinese market and the decline of LME Lun lead inventory, the market was boosted and the price hit the bottom and rebounded. In terms of Shanghai lead, Shanghai lead fell sharply on the first day of the market opening after the festival. Later, with the boost of fundamentals, Shanghai lead rebounded, and the spot market basically followed the trend of Shanghai lead. From a fundamental point of view, lead enterprises will gradually resume production after the festival. With the end of the holiday, the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises will gradually increase. As the market approaches the traditional off-season in March, the overall market mentality is weak, and the output of battery enterprises is expected to decline. At present, the price advantage of recycled lead is obvious, and some demand turns to the recycled lead market, which once again affects the mentality of the primary lead market. At present, the social inventory is still high, dragging down the market mentality.

In the future, the business society believes that under the current situation of many negative factors, the rise of lead price is weak. Later, as the downstream gradually enters the off-season, the lead price may have room to decline.

Relevant data:

WBMs: according to the latest report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday, there was a supply shortage of 130900 tons in the global lead market from January to December 2021, compared with 108700 tons in 2020. From January to December 2021, the global refined lead output was 14.374 million tons, an increase of 21.7% over the same period in 2020. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 7.2888 million tons, 2.291 million tons higher than the same period in 2020, accounting for about 50% of the global total. In December 2021, the output of refined lead was 1331100 tons and the demand was 1345400 tons.

On February 28, 2022, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory decreased by 25 tons from 44325 tons