1、 Price trend
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8870 yuan / ton on February 15, up 410 yuan / ton compared with 8460 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 4.58% in half a month and 20.68% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
After the Spring Festival, the market price of PVC rose sharply, with an increase of about 5% in half a month, and the market stopped rising and turned down this week. The rise of the current round of market is mainly due to the rise of crude oil during the Spring Festival. The good macro atmosphere boosted the market sentiment. The futures price rose sharply above 9500, driving the spot higher, and the industry has a good mentality. At present, the PVC manufacturers have started steadily, but the festive atmosphere has not retreated, the downstream market has not fully recovered, the transaction at high prices is general, the social inventory is still in the positive accumulation, and the fundamentals are weak. Therefore, the driving force for the continuous rise of PVC is insufficient, and the price is stable, medium and down. As of the 15th, the price of raw calcium carbide fell to around 4050-4250 yuan / ton. The quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises is mostly around 8700-9000 yuan / ton. The price of pvc5 calcium carbide delivered in Tianjin is 8850-8950 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 9000-9150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Changzhou is 9000 yuan / ton, Domestic market prices have fallen steadily.
It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from November 22, 2021 to February 13, 2022 that the domestic PVC cycle rose and fell with each other. The largest decline was 2.71% in the week of November 29, which continued to the end of December. J prices rose steadily in 2022, especially after the spring Festival, and rose by 3.84% in the week of February 7.
For the external price, the price of PVC in Asia rose last week, CFR China rose by 40 to 1300 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia rose by 20 to 1310 US dollars / ton, and CFR India rose by 30 to 1540 US dollars / ton.
International crude oil, on February 14, the price of international crude oil futures rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $95.46/barrel, up US $2.36 or 2.5%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $96.48/barrel, up US $2.04 or 2.2%. Oil prices rose sharply for two consecutive trading days, hitting a new high for more than seven years, mainly due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine; In addition, the actual output increase of OPEC + does not meet the target, which aggravates the concern of global energy supply shortage.
| PVA |
Ethylene, the overall market price of external ethylene rose. Ethylene prices in Asia rose. As of the 14th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1206-1216 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1186-1196 / ton. European ethylene market fell. As of the 14th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1255-1265 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1255-1265 / ton.
On February 15, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4150.00, a decrease of 1.97% compared with February 1 (4233.33). The price of raw material orchid charcoal was adjusted at a high level. Shenmulan charcoal is currently about 1700-1800 yuan / ton, and the cost support of calcium carbide is general. The downstream PVC market has continued to rise recently, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. On the whole, the upstream support of calcium carbide is general, and the downstream demand is good. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the PVC manufacturers have started steadily, but the festive atmosphere has not retreated, the downstream market has not fully recovered, and the transactions at high prices are general. It is expected that the PVC market may continue to be stable, medium and down.
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