In 2021, the supply of hips market exceeded the demand, and the price fluctuated downward. During the year, the trend was roughly up-down-up-down, in the shape of W. According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of hips at the beginning of the year was 12693.33 yuan / ton and the price at the end of the year was 11266.67 yuan / ton. The lowest price of the whole year was in September and the highest price was in May, with a decrease of 11.24% during the year.

2、 Market analysis

The hips market rose first and then fell in the first half of the year. During the Spring Festival, the US gold price of styrene soared, and the spot price rose rapidly after the festival. PS petrochemical manufacturers increased sharply, which boosted traders to actively pursue the rise. In addition, some PS devices such as Jiangsu saibaolong and CITIC Guoan stopped and reduced production, the on-site supply was slightly tightened, and the superposition of favorable factors boosted the rise of hips prices. In May, under the guidance of macro policies, the prices of nearly 100 kinds of raw materials collectively “dived”, and the market gradually returned to rationality. All plasticized products fell to varying degrees. Moreover, after the strong rise of hips in the early stage, the demand side followed up in general, the hips price decreased and the market focus moved down. In June, the shock of raw styrene weakened, the supporting force of cost declined, superimposed the impact of power rationing in some regions, and the trading in some regions was affected, and the hips price continued to decline.

In the second half of the year, the demand growth was slow, the boost was insufficient, and the hips was high and down. In July, the price of raw styrene fluctuated and weakened, the cost support was general, coupled with the general demand in the off-season, the shipment of hips was poor, and the offer of cargo holders was loose. At the same time, the early maintenance device was closed, the supply increased, and the hips price fell under the interweaving of bad and bad. August is still the off-season of demand. Under the drag of demand, even if the raw materials rebound, the hips market is still dominated by steady decline. In September, the raw material styrene fluctuated sharply in the month, with an increase of about 4% in the month. The cost side supported the slight rise of hips price. After returning from the National Day holiday in October, the hiips market continued to rise. In addition, the market supply was slightly tightened, and the cargo holders took advantage of the trend to increase their offer. Since the middle of the year, due to the macro policy, the market sentiment has been depressed and the superposition of power and production restrictions in some regions, the downstream continued to need replenishment, the cost side and demand side were weak, and the hips market was dominated by bad conditions. In October, the price of raw styrene fell by nearly 20%, the cost was reduced, the demand was poor, the sales pressure of cargo holders was large, and the market supply was increasingly abundant, Negative sentiment dominated the market, and hips prices fell frequently. In December, the cost side was average. The market price of hips continued to decline for good. At the end of the year, the positive shipping psychology of cargo holders was obvious. In addition, the market supply was increasingly abundant, and hips fell by about 4% in the month.

According to the monthly growth and decline from April 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021, it can be seen that the ups and downs are mixed in the hips cycle, but they are obviously up less and down more. They rise only in April, may, September and October. The month with a larger increase is may, with an increase of 4.18% for the whole month, and the largest decrease is November, with a decrease of 6.49%.

In terms of raw materials, the price of styrene generally showed a trend of “rise shock fall” in 2021. The decrease of imports promoted the rise, and the cost support was strong in the early stage and then weakened. As 2022 approaches, it is expected that the effective production capacity of styrene will increase by 27% in 2022, and the industrial chain will also usher in centralized production. The production capacity growth of upstream and downstream core links may reach a high level. Looking ahead, the supply of styrene and its downstream products will be relaxed. In 2022, based on the expected requirements of the state for the stability maintenance of the real estate industry, the growth rate of terminal demand such as household appliances slowed down, and there was a risk of slowdown in foreign demand after superimposing the gradual consumption of subsidies for the U.S. epidemic. Next year’s styrene price will be balanced by crude oil cost guidance, import volume, port inventory and downstream enthusiasm for taking goods.

3、 Future forecast

The business society believes that in 2021, the supply of hips market is relatively abundant, the demand side also has the trend of steady improvement, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent. Therefore, the price fluctuation during the year is not violent, and the overall shock is mainly downward. With the acceleration of PS’s new production, it is expected that the total production capacity of PS industry may reach 7.96 million tons by the end of 2023. Hips may have a certain downward expectation. It is also necessary to pay attention to macro news, device dynamics and raw material price trend.