In 2021, the domestic polyethylene spot market showed an “m” trend as a whole. The three varieties fluctuated frequently during the year, and the market fluctuated from high to low, but the increase was greater than the decrease. The three varieties rose in varying degrees, among which LLDPE increased significantly compared with the other two varieties. Looking back on 2021, there were two prominent highs in the polyethylene spot market, respectively in March and October, and also ushered in the highest point of the year in October. Overall, the trend of polyethylene spot market in the second quarter and the end of the year is weak, as shown below.
According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of LLDPE in East China market was 7883.33 yuan / ton on January 1 and 8710.00 yuan / ton on December 31, with an increase of 10.49% during the year. The lowest point of the year occurred on January 13. The average price of LLDPE in East China market was 7750.00 yuan / ton, and the highest point occurred on October 19. The average price of LLDPE in East China market was 9983.33 yuan / ton, with a maximum amplitude of 28.82%.
According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of LDPE in East China market was 11125.00 yuan / ton on January 1 and 11825.00 yuan / ton on December 31, with an increase of 6.29% during the year. The lowest point of the year occurred on June 17, the average price of LDPE in East China market was 9425.00 yuan / ton, the highest point occurred on October 13, the average price of LDPE in East China market was 13975.00 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude was 48.28%.
According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of HDPE in East China market was 8166.67 yuan / ton on January 1 and 8800.00 yuan / ton on December 31, with an increase of 7.76% during the year. The lowest point of the year occurred on January 18. The average price of HDPE in East China market was 8000.00 yuan / ton, and the highest point occurred on October 12. The average price of HDPE in East China market was 10133.33 yuan / ton, with a maximum amplitude of 26.67%.
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It can be seen from the monthly k-column chart of business society that the polyethylene market will go up for 5 months and down for 7 months in 2021. Among them, the increase was relatively obvious in February and September, and the decrease was relatively small in January and July.
Looking back on 2021, there were two roller coaster trends in the polyethylene spot market during the year, with ups and downs. They ushered in high points in March and October respectively, and also reached a new year high in October. Let’s look at it quarterly.
In the first quarter, the polyethylene spot market was low first and then high. At the beginning of the year, the polyethylene market continued the decline at the end of 2020. It was mainly weak before the Spring Festival, but the overall decline was small. Until after the Spring Festival, the polyethylene market rose one after another. During this period, the petrochemical inventory was low, which brought some benefits to the market supply side. In addition, the extremely cold weather in the United States impacted the operation of local oil refining and related chemical production units, and the chemical production fell into a state of paralysis. Affected by this, crude oil and plastic raw materials rose one after another, even the plastic futures market rose, and the spot market followed up.
In the second quarter, the three varieties of polyethylene in the spot market fell sharply. After experiencing the sharp rise in the first quarter, the positive factors in the polyethylene spot market in the second quarter were insufficient, and the collective entered the decline channel. Among them, LDPE fell the most obviously, with a decline of 16.58% in the second quarter. After the plastic raw material market rose in the first quarter, it returned to rationality and fell rapidly, and the raw material support was not available. In addition, the second quarter was in the off-season of demand, and the support brought by terminal demand was limited. Agricultural film was mainly started in stages, with a small amount of production, and most other enterprises shut down. Packaging film enterprises also had limited operating rate, less raw material consumption, and low procurement enthusiasm of downstream factories. Merchants actively sell goods for profit, but the effect is not ideal. The downstream mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, the mood is obvious, and the market real offer trading is limited. Until the end of the second quarter, the international oil price continued to rise, which brought obvious support to the polyolefin industry chain, and the polyethylene spot market ushered in a stop rising market.
In the third quarter, the polyethylene spot market was weak first and then strong. At this stage, the LDPE market showed a continuous upward trend, with a certain deviation from other varieties. HDPE and LLDPE showed a low trend first and then high trend. The three varieties showed obvious strength, mainly in September. LDPE rose as much as 3000 yuan / ton in the third quarter. The third quarter coincided with the golden ninth, the raw material market rose again, the cost side support was strong, and the Liansu futures market rose strongly. In addition, the polyethylene spot market ushered in the traditional peak demand season, during which there were many maintenance enterprises, the import volume decreased, and the sharp rise of coal production reduction under the influence of the dual control policy supported the continuous rise of the polyethylene market.
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In the fourth quarter, the heat of polyethylene spot market decreased significantly, the continuous rising power was insufficient, and the price fell. As can be seen from the trend chart, after the 11th National Day holiday, coal continued to rise sharply, and the polyethylene spot market continued its upward trend in September. There is still a week of rising market, which also reached a high point in the year during this period. However, in the later stage, with the intervention of coal prices, the recovery of polyethylene maintenance enterprises and the production of new production capacity, the market supply increased and the demand gradually decreased. The polyethylene spot market began to decline in mid October and continued its weakness until the end of the year. During this period, LLDPE was greatly affected by the futures market and fluctuated frequently. HDPE is relatively stable and has maintained a sideways consolidation trend since November.
It can be seen from the comparison trend chart of business and social periods that the trend of the spot market in the plastic period in 2021 is not different, but also presents an “m” trend. In addition to the fact that the futures trend is stronger than the spot trend at the end of the year, the trend is relatively unified, the highest point appears in October, and then begins to fluctuate and fall.
On the whole, this year’s macro factors, strong cost and decline in import volume have brought positive support to the polyethylene spot market. The trend is stronger than that in 2020, and the prices in the same period are also higher than that in 2020. At present, although the cost support at the raw material end still exists and the petrochemical inventory is relatively low, there are few maintenance enterprises in the market, the terminal demand is weak, and the three major polyethylene spot varieties have entered the horizontal consolidation stage. In the later stage of the Spring Festival, the downstream factories gradually opened the holiday mode, and the demand was further reduced. The operators were cautious and had a strong bearish mood. It was difficult for the three polyethylene varieties to rise sharply in the short term, or continue to oscillate in a narrow range. In 2022, the polyethylene spot market may still be dominated by strong shocks, with a gentle trend compared with 2021. In addition, the new high-pressure production capacity is limited, the market supply is tight, and the price may still remain high.
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