1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, mixed xylene rose slightly this month and fluctuated lower. On November 1, the price of mixed xylene was 6790 yuan / ton; On November 30, the price was 5910 yuan / ton, the lowest price in this month was 5910 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 6830 yuan / ton, down 12.7% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price in the month was 920 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

At the beginning of the month, the crude oil price was at a high level, the bottom of mixed xylene was well supported, and the price rose slightly due to the low inventory of mixed xylene. With the opening of the decline channel of crude oil, the price fluctuates frequently and the cost support weakens; The arrival of goods at the port increases and the market mentality turns empty; Downstream demand was weak, and mixed xylene fell continuously. In the latter half of the year, boosted by the rise in the price of toluene, the price rebounded slightly in the short term, but the overall market news was short, which was difficult to maintain. After the sharp decline of crude oil, the price fell.

In terms of crude oil, at the beginning of the month, the crude oil market maintained a tight supply pattern, OPEC + maintained the original production increase plan, and the oil price fluctuated strongly. The US passed a $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill, which also boosted oil prices. In the middle of the month, it was reported that the United States may release strategic oil reserves, superimposing the deterioration of the epidemic in Europe, and the trend of crude oil was frustrated. With the continuous growth of U.S. crude oil inventory, the decline of crude oil expanded. At the end of June, South Africa and other countries found a new variant virus, and the oil price fell sharply, with a single day decline of more than 10%. As of November 29, Brent fell $10.94 / barrel, or 12.97%; WTI fell $13.62/barrel, or 16.3%.

In terms of external trading, the price of mixed xylene in Asia fell broadly this month. As of November 29, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 750.5 US dollars / ton, down 62 US dollars / ton or 7.63% compared with October 29; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $775.5/t, down US $62.5/t or 7.46% month on month on October 29.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX price continued to be stable this month, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7300 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price was flat compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 69.77% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China fluctuated and fell this month. The price was 5124 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4622 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 9.8% from the beginning of the month and up 39.16% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, ox in East China rose slightly this month and fell three times. The price was 7260 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6600 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 9.09% from the beginning of the month and up 20% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong showed a downward trend as a whole this month. The price fell broadly at the beginning of the month, rose violently after the middle of the month, and fell again at the end of the month. The price was 8474.8 yuan / ton on November 1 and 7937.2 yuan / ton on November 29, down 6.34% from the beginning of the month and up 49.4% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fell sharply at the end of the month, but the market believes that this slump is excessive, and bargain hunting by traders increased. The market is still evaluating the impact of the Omicron variant on the economy and crude oil demand. And the market is waiting for the OPEC + meeting, and the production reduction of major oil producing countries is expected to rise. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Crude oil fell sharply at the end of the month, related bulk commodities generally weakened, and gasoline and diesel prices fell. There are differences in downstream demand, but the overall weakness makes it difficult for xylene to support the price. On the whole, the focus of short-term impact on the trend of mixed xylene has shifted to cost crude oil, and the price is deadlocked. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market trend at the raw material end, plant dynamics of enterprises at the supply end, port inventory and downstream purchase at the demand end on the price of mixed xylene.