Trade name: natural rubber (standard I)

Latest price: 14240 yuan / ton on November 22, 410 yuan / ton higher than 13830 yuan / ton on November 19

Market analysis: according to the data monitoring of business society, on November 22, Shanghai glue increased sharply, with a range of about 600-700 yuan / ton, and the spot glue increased with the plate. The impact of La Nina on the production area is becoming more and more obvious. The continuous excessive rain in Thailand affects the output. Indonesia has entered the stage of seasonal output decline. Cutting has begun to stop in China. The arrival volume of Qingdao port continues to be low and the inventory has decreased. However, the willingness to purchase downstream raw materials, the delivery is normal, and the price of natural rubber is strong. The start-up of downstream tire enterprises continued to pick up. Last week, the start-up rate of China’s semi steel tire sample manufacturers was 63.75%, up 1.70% month on month and down 7.44% year on year. This week, the start-up rate of China’s all steel tire sample manufacturers was 63.26%, up 2.25% month on month and down 10.78% year on year. The start-up remained relatively good.

Future forecast: weather, labor shortage and seasonal factors affect the current rubber supply at home and abroad, the operating rate of tire enterprises rebounds, Qingdao’s spot inventory imports continue to be low, and there are too many influencing factors of natural rubber. It is expected that the recent shock trend will be dominated by the upward trend, and the short-term technical correction after the sharp increase will not be ruled out.